AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Posts 9% Gain This Week

May 17, 2019

Corn futures ended the Friday session with the front months firm to 4 1/4 cents higher. Nearby July was up a strong 8.96% this week. The buying was tied to slow planting progress and the potential impacts on either final acreage or yield. As of May 14, the managed money net short position in corn futures and options was still at 282,918 contracts according to CFTC data. US exports as of May 9 are 63% of the USDA projection for 18/19, matching the average pace. The total commitments, however, are just 80% of that projection vs the 92% average, as unshipped sales are lagging. A total of 138,000 MT of corn was bought in separate South Korean tenders on Friday, with US and South America listed as optional origins.

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.83 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.90 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.98 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents

Mar 20 Corn closed at $4.07 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Show Weakness on Friday but Manage to Close the Week Higher

May 17, 2019

Soybean futures saw weakness into Friday’s close, with the front months down 17 to 18 1/4 cents. Concerns of corn acres switching to beans pressured the market. July soybeans were up 1.54% this week, with meal 2.44% higher. July soy meal was down $7.60/ton, with soybean oil 50 points lower. Commitment of Traders data shows managed money spec funds adding 8,282 contracts to their record net short position of 168,835 contracts in the week ending May 14. USDA data from Thursday shows total export commitments at 94% of the 18/19 projected total, down from the 98% average. Export shipments are 69% of that projection, with the average at 87% and last year (which had a robust fourth quarter) at 79%.

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.21 3/4, down 18 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $8.28 1/4, down 18 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $8.34 3/4, down 17 3/4 cents,

Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.59 1/2, down 17 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal closed at $294.30, down $7.60,

Jul 19 Soybean Oil closed at $27.22, down $0.50

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Sees Profit Taking Ahead of the Weekend

May 17, 2019

Wheat futures closed Friday with CBT contracts 1-2 cents lower, following a bout of profit taking after July was up 9.48% this week. KC slipped from the highs but was firm to 3 1/2 cents higher, with front month July 8.59% in the green on the week. MPLS was steady to 2 cents higher, with a 2.08% rise since last Friday. Spec traders in KC wheat futures and options trimmed back last week’s record net short position by 2,442 contracts, showing a net position of 56,424 as of Tuesday. Total unshipped old crop US wheat sales now total 3.517 MMT, with just 3 reporting weeks left in the MY, as total commitments are up 8.8% from last year. Those export commitments are 103% of the updated USDA full year projection, with 105% the average at this time.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.65, down 2 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.20 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.27 3/4, up 1 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Higher as Japan Eases Restrictions

May 17, 2019

Live cattle futures posted 80 cent to $180 gains in most contracts on Friday. A USDA announcement shows that Japan has agreed to lift the 30-month age restriction on beef imports from the US that was implemented originally as a 20-month following the BSE outbreak in 2003. Feeder cattle futures were 30 cents higher in nearby May, with other contracts $2 to $2.625 higher. The CME feeder cattle index was down 30 cents to $132.76 on May 16. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 75 cents at $220.31 with Select boxes 40 cents higher @ $208.28. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 660,000 head through Saturday. That was down 11,000 head from the previous week and 8,000 below the same week last year. Cash sales have been reported at ~$117 this week, with a few down to $115 reported by USDA. Money managers in live cattle futures and options were shown to liquidate 17,405 contracts from their CFTC net long position on Tuesday at 87,296 contracts.

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $111.275, up $0.800,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $108.925, up $0.975,

Oct 19 Cattle closed at $108.900, up $1.000,

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $134.525, up $0.300

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.500, up $2.175

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.700, up $2.475

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Close Friday Mixed

May 17, 2019

Lean Hog futures closed the Friday session with front months 15 to 65 cents higher and deferred contracts lower. Later in the day, it was reported US was lifting tariffs in Mexican and Canadian steel. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 53 cents from the previous day @ $84.21 on May 15. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 86 cents at $85.27 on Friday afternoon. The national average base hog was 10 cents higher on Friday, at an average weighted price of $81.48. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 2.371 million head including Saturday. That was 30,000 head below the previous week but 32,000 above the same week last year.

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $92.375, up $0.150,

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $93.000, up $0.600

Aug 19 Hogs closed at $93.950, up $0.650

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Falls 3.59% This Week

May 17, 2019

Cotton futures ended the Friday session with most contracts 71 to 131 points lower. On the week, July was down 3.59%, with the two week drop at 12.89%. CFTC data on Friday afternoon showed specs in cotton futures and options at their largest reported net short position since Feb 2007 at 24,828 contracts as of Tuesday. USDA’s Export Sales data on Thursday show upland cotton shipments 67% of the projected total, with the normal pace at 75%. Total commitments are now 104% of that total, with the average at 100% for this week. The Cotlook A index for May 16 was down 50 points from the previous day to 76.85 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 59.59 cents/lb, down 5.06 cents from last week.

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 65.990, down 81 points,

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 66.390, down 131 points

Dec 19 Cotton closed at 66.380, down 71 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com