Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Tue May 14, 12:26PM CDT

Corn futures are trading 11 to 13 cents higher in the front months, with deferred contracts up 5 to 10 cents. May futures expire today. After the Monday close, NASS reported the US corn crop was 30% planted as of Sunday. That was shy of most estimates and 36% below the average pace. IL is 71% behind normal at just 11%, with IN 51% below their average @ 6% and OH at 4% complete. NE was 46% planted, with IA at 48% both lagging normal. Forecasts on the 7-day QPF show precip in the WCB, with minimal amounts in the ECB, which may allow for some planting (if soils can dry out). The 6-10 day outlook looks wetter than normal for most of the Corn Belt. IEG Vantage (Informa) put their 2019 US corn acreage estimate at 90.7 million acres, down 2.1 million acres from USDA’s Intentions number.

May 19 Corn is at $3.59 1/2, up 12 cents,

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.69 1/2, up 13 cents,

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.78 1/4, up 12 1/2 cents

Dec 19 Corn is at $3.88 1/4, up 11 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are posting strong 24 to 28 cent gains in most contracts on Tuesday. July soy meal is up $10.20/ton, with soybean oil 38 points higher. May futures expire today. Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed soybean planting at 9% complete as of May 12, vs. the 5 year average at 29% for that date. NC was the only state reported at faster than normal pace, with SD still yet to get seed in the ground. MN and IL are 3% planted, 31% behind normal, with OH and IN at 2%. IA is 13% seeded, with NE at 20% complete. NOPA is expected by traders to show April member crush of 161.607 mbu, which would be slightly higher than last year. Soybean oil stocks are seen at 1.779 billion pounds. IEG Vantage, formerly Informa, puts the US soybean acreage at 86.4 million acres, up 1.8 million acres from USDA March Intentions.

May 19 Soybeans are at $8.15, up 24 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $8.30, up 27 1/2 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $8.37, up 28 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $8.43, up 28 cents,

July 19 Soybean Meal is at $297.60, up $10.20

July 19 Soybean Oil is at $26.99, up $0.38

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are showing 4 to 9 cent gains in most contracts, with spillover buying from corn. USDA showed 42% of the winter wheat crop headed as of Sunday, behind the 54% average. Conditions on the Brugler500 Index were 3 points higher to 369. Spring wheat planters managed to find some dry ground last week with progress moving 23% to 45% complete by Sunday. MN was reported at 35% planted, with ND at 37% and SD 46% complete, all making decent progress from the week prior. Rains forecast in those areas on the 5-day QPF may slow progress. Acreage estimates from IEG Vantage show US spring wheat at 12.4 million acres for 2019, down 470,000 acres from USDA.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.44, up 7 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.05 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.22 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are showing slight gains in the front months, with deferred contracts lower. Feeder cattle futures are 70 cents to $1.125 lower in most contracts, with the exception to nearby May, up 77.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was down 13 to $135.39 on May 10. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were down 54 cents at $221.04 with Select boxes 66 cents higher @ $209.55. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 121,000 head for Monday. That was up 2,000 head from the previous week and 4,000 above the same week last year.

Jun 19 Cattle are at $109.800, up $0.050,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $107.125, up $0.200,

Oct 19 Cattle are at $106.950, up $0.050,

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $135.825, up $0.775

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.350, down $0.750

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.600, down $0.700

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are showing triple digit gains in the front months at midday, ignoring expiring May. June is using some of the expanded limits, up $3.20. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 24 cents from the previous day @ $83.04 on May 10. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 40 cents at $88.64 on Tuesday morning. The national average base hog was $80.7 on Tuesday, down 16cents from the previous day. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 461,000 head on Monday. That was 9,000 head below the previous week but 6,000 above the same week last year.

May 19 Hogs are at $83.550, unch,

Jun 19 Hogs are at $89.875, up $3.200

Jul 19 Hogs are at $90.575, up $2.825

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are showing a Turnaround Tuesday bounce, with the front months 40 to 90 points higher. US planting progress was reported at 26% in the Monday afternoon Crop Progress report, vs. the 32% average and 34% last year. TX planting progress was pegged at 19%, back 4% from the average, with GA at 42%, 10% faster than normal. IEG Vantage estimates that US cotton producers will plant 14.1 million acres of cotton, 335,000 acres larger than USDA at the end of March. The Cotlook A index for May 10 was down 170 points from the previous day to 79.00 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 64.65 cents/lb, down 3.62 cents from last week.

Jul 19 Cotton is at 66.35, up 90 points,

Oct 19 Cotton is at 67.05, up 40 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 66.99, up 59 points

Mar 20 Cotton is at 68.150, up 53 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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