Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Tue May 14, 5:19PM CDT

Corn futures saw double digit gains in the 2019 contracts, with deferred contracts 4 to 10 cents higher. May futures expired today at $3.60 1/2. USDA confirming extremely slow planting and short covering caused the rally. After the Monday close, NASS reported IL is 71% behind normal planting pace at just 11%, with IN 51% below their average @ 6% and OH at 4% complete. NE was 46% planted, with IA at 48% both lagging normal. Forecasts on the 7-day QPF show precip in the WCB, with minimal amounts in the ECB, which may allow for some planting (if soils can dry out). The 6-10 day outlook looks wetter than normal for most of the Corn Belt. IEG Vantage (Informa) put their 2019 US corn acreage estimate at 90.7 million acres, down 2.1 million acres from USDA’s Intentions number.

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.68 3/4, up 12 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.77 1/4, up 11 1/2 cents,

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.87 3/4, up 11 1/4 cents

Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.99 1/2, up 9 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures posted sharp 26 to 29 cent gains in most contracts on Tuesday. Specs were working to cover their record net short position, after USDA showed slower than expected planting. July soy meal was up $10.70/ton, with soybean oil 39 points higher. May futures expired today. Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed that NC was the only state reported at faster than normal pace as of 5/12, with SD still yet to get seed in the ground. MN and IL are 3% planted, well behind normal, with OH and IN at 2%. IA is 13% seeded, with NE at 20% complete. USDA reported a private export sale of 180,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations for 18/19 this morning. NOPA is expected by traders to show April member crush of 161.607 mbu, which would be slightly higher than last year. Soybean oil stocks are seen at 1.779 billion pounds. IEG Vantage, formerly Informa, puts the US soybean acreage at 86.4 million acres, up 1.8 million acres from USDA March Intentions.

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.31 1/2, up 29 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $8.38, up 29 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $8.44, up 29 cents,

Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.69 1/2, up 28 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal closed at $298.00, up $10.70,

Jul 19 Soybean Oil closed at $27.00, up $0.39

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures closed the Tuesday session with most winter wheat contracts 10 to 12 cents higher, as MPLS was up 3 to 5 1/4 cents. Double digit gains in corn helped to support the wheat complex. USDA showed conditions in KS down 1 point, with OK up 9 and TX improving 2 points from the week prior. Most SRW states saw lower ratings. Spring wheat planters managed to find some dry ground last week with MN reported at 35% planted, with ND at 37% and SD 46% complete, all making decent progress from the week prior. Rains forecast in those areas on the 5-day QPF may slow progress. Acreage estimates from IEG Vantage show US spring wheat at 12.4 million acres for 2019, down 470,000 acres from the March Planting Intentions report.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.48 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.08 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.23 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were down 20 to 55 cents in most contracts on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures felt some pressure from higher corn, down 60 cents to $1.175, as May was up 95 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was down 32 cents to $135.07 on May 13. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down $1.46 at $220.12 with Select boxes 8 cents higher @ $208.97. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 242,000 head through Tuesday. That was up 2,000 head from the previous week and 5,000 above the same week last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction shows a total of 376 head of cattle for sale on the platform.

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $109.500, down $0.250,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $106.725, down $0.200,

Oct 19 Cattle closed at $106.475, down $0.425,

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $136.000, up $0.950

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.500, down $0.600

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.575, down $0.725

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were steady to $2.45 higher in most contracts on Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 24 cents from the previous day @ $83.04 on May 10. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 40 cents at $88.64 on Tuesday afternoon. The butt and ham primals were the only pieces reported higher. The national average base hog was $82.02 on Tuesday, up $1.14 from the previous day. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 921,000 head for the WTD through Tuesday. That was 21,000 head below the previous week but 6,000 above the same week last year.

May 19 Hogs closed at $83.550, unch,

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $89.125, up $2.450

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $90.050, up $2.300

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures settled with 46 to 131 point gains in most contracts on Turnaround Tuesday. Crop Progress data on Monday showed TX planting progress at 19% on Sunday, 4% behind the average, with GA at 42%, 10% faster than normal. IEG Vantage estimates that US cotton producers will plant 14.1 million acres of cotton, 335,000 acres larger than USDA at the end of March. The Cotlook A index for May 10 was down 170 points from the previous day to 79.00 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 64.65 cents/lb, down 3.62 cents from last week.

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 66.760, up 131 points,

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 67.460, up 81 points

Dec 19 Cotton closed at 66.990, up 59 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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