Grains Report 05/14/19
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Wed May 15, 11:08AM CDT

Crop Progress
Date 12-May 5-May 2018 Avg
Cotton Planted 26 18 34 32
Corn Planted 30 23 59 66
Corn Emerged 10 6 25 29
Soybeans Planted 9 6 32 29
Sorghum Planted 24 22 32 33
Rice Planted 55 48 81 82
Rice Emerged 42 35 59 63
Peanuts Planted 40 22 42 36
Sugar beets Planted 63 31 61 80
Oats Planted 62 50 70 82
Oats Emerged 43 36 46 64
Winter Wheat Headed 42 29 43 54
Spring Wheat Planted 45 22 54 67
Spring Wheat Emerged 10 4 13 34
Barley Planted 69 37 69 72
Barley Emerged 25 12 20 42

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 2 6 28 49 15
Winter Wheat Last Week 2 6 28 52 12
Winter Wheat Last Year 14 22 28 29 7

Pastures and Ranges This Week 1 6 30 52 11
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 1 7 32 49 11
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 5 15 37 37 6

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 13
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 09, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/09/2019 05/02/2019 05/10/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 73 0 0 9,254 21,340
CORN 1,000,762 976,842 1,578,029 36,633,225 34,781,862
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 462 4,745
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 200 0 0 2,992 12,679
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 94,465 24,571 7,668 1,302,443 4,683,191
SOYBEANS 513,375 603,012 698,865 32,655,233 44,751,638
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 842,418 537,490 466,960 22,785,709 22,703,097
Total 2,451,293 2,141,915 2,751,522 93,389,318 106,958,576
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May. 15, 2019 1 May 07, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL May. 15, 2019 28 May 10, 2019
ROUGH RICE May. 15, 2019 12 May 13, 2019
CORN May. 15, 2019 79 May 13, 2019
SOYBEAN May. 15, 2019 236 May 13, 2019
WHEAT May. 15, 2019 23 May 10, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher as traders noted the oversold nature of the market and worried about the weather. It remains cold in the Midwest, but has been drier in the northern Great Plains and planting progress for Spring Wheat was much improved. Planting remains well behind normal and some areas might not be planted by insurance cut off dates. Some tweets from Russian sources talked about some extreme heat for growing areas near the Volga and yield losses are possible. The Great Plains have seen a lot of rain and snow since last Fall, and crops have had plenty to drink. The rains should help produce great yields for Winter Wheat but also lower protein levels. Big rains have also been seen in the Midwest. There is talk that all the rain could create disease pressure on the Winter crops in the Great Plains and Midwest even though high yields are possible. The rains have helped to support Spring Wheat futures due to some increasing planting delays in the US. Canadian crops have also seen some planting delays due to cold and wet weather. Demand has been the big problem for any bullish traders for the last year and demand does not seem to be getting any better now. The demand is the past year has been disappointing as weaker prices have not improved sales. World prices have been stronger than those in the US due to less production in major world exporters such as Russia, Europe, and Australia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures should be near o above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light precipitation or dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 434, 428, and 426 July, with resistance at 443, 448, and 454 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 378, 366, and 361 July. Support is at 392, 391, and 384 July, with resistance at 406, 408, and 409 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 512, 507, and 505 July, and resistance is at 521, 523, and 524 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was little changed yesterday, but the charts still show a bullish bias. The market held well when other markets like Soybeans and Cotton were lower on the Chinese, US trade war. China has not yet bought US Rice, although it could start one day once the tariff wars are resolved.. Ideas of planting delays in Rice and continued good export demand have been reasons to support futures. Growing areas near the Gulf Coast and in Texas are mostly planted now, and initial development has been reported to be uneven. Some areas look very good while others have struggled to get good stands due to excessive rains. Planting progress has been more sporadic to the north due to cool and wet conditions, but some planting has been done. Ideas are that just under half of the total crop has now been planted. The domestic market is using price breaks to extend forward coverage as the mills push to own Rice into the next harvest. Prices have been firm in Texas due to good demand for limited supplies. Much of the Rice is moving to Mexico. Prices have been firm in Arkansas due to a lack of producer selling as they wait to get the next crop planted.
Overnight News: The Delta should get more precipitation this weekend after a dry week. Temperatures should above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1124 and 1174 July. Support is at 1099, 1091, and 1082 July, with resistance at 1109, 1117, and 1125 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher as the news from the trade war with China seemed to be part of the market. Futures moved sharply lower early in the session due to news that China had retaliated with tariffs of its own to go against tariffs just imposed by the US, but then the market rallied and close higher in reversal trading. Futures should be able to move higher over the course of this week based on the price action of yesterday as it seems that all of the bad news is in the market. The planting pace remains extremely slow and might not improve much this week even with drier weather as there is still too much standing water in the fields. The worst problem is here in Illinois, bt all of the Midwest is well behind normal planting and yield loss is now almost certain. There will now be increasing talk that some acres will not get planted at all or will be planted to other crops. The USDA monthly supply and demand reports showed no reason to worry about supplies this year or next year, but it now appears likely that USDA is overestimating the potential size of the US crop. US and world ending stocks levels were estimated high and above trade expectations. Brazil Winter Corn appears to be in good condition as the crop develops and moves to pollination. Crop estimates are high and have shown a tendency to increase as the crop develops. Most areas have seen enough rain for now. Corn prices are reported to be weakening in South America as the summer production from both Brazil and Argentina is now available. Meanwhile, the slow planting pace here and in Canada has supported Oats futures.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 351, 348, and 345 July, and resistance is at 359, 362, and 365 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 280, 278, and 277 July, and resistance is at 289, 296, and 298 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower, but closed off the lows of the day as buying emerged in sympathy with Corn and Wheat. Soybeans trends are still down as the market has seen some extreme selling and very little buying interest in the last few weeks. The weekly charts for Soybeans show the potential for futures to move to about 770 bases the nearest futures contract. Soybean Meal trends are also down. The tariff war with China escalated over the weekend as the US increased sanctions last week and China increased tariffs yesterday morning. The market is worried about overall Chinese Soybeans demand due to the Asian Swine Flu that has decimated the hog herd there. The government reports that at least 18% of its hog herd has been lost and private estimates show much higher loss potential. It is an indication that Soybeans and Meal demand could be significantly less in the coming year as China works to eradicate the disease and then repopulate its herds. USDA showed little planting progress for Soybeans in the last week as most producers could do no work, and those that did have some chances to plant worked on getting the Corn into the ground. There is potential for some areas not to get planted this year to either Corn or Soybeans.
Overnight News: USDA said that unknown destinations bought 180,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 791, 786, and 780 July, and resistance is at 807, 816, and 827 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 283.00, 280.00, and 277.00 July, and resistance is at 293.00, 297.00, and 302.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2600 July. Support is at 2600, 2600, and 2570 July, with resistance at 2700, 2740, and 2750 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mostly a little lower yesterday, but was able to recover from the lows made earlier in the session on buying along with Chicago. Trends are still down as the market is still pressured by the lack of demand from China. Prices have consolidated the losses in the last few days since the StatsCan stocks reports that were no worse for prices than expected. Demand remains light in the domestic market and the export market as fieldwork and planting are underway. Planting conditions are reported to be good. Palm Oil was higher after making new contract lows on the price action in Chicago and in petroleum markets. Demand ideas are improving. Short term trends are now down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 431.00, 430.00, and 427.00 July, with resistance at 438.00, 441.00, and 445.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1940 July. Support is at 1950, 1920, and 1890 July, with resistance at 2010, 2030, and 2050 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation today and late this week. Temperatures should be below normal today, but warmer the rest of this week.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +51 July +154 July +80 July +35 July +1 July
June +40 July +65 July +25 July
July +40 July +65 July +24 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
May
June
July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 10
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, May 10 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the
closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 426.70 dn 0.80
Track Thunder Bay 440.80 up 0.90
Track Vancouver 455.80 up 0.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 502.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 502.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 512.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 532.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 507.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 507.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 517.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 537.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 470.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 417.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1,970 +20.00 Unuoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 142 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1690)