Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Wed May 15, 12:25PM CDT

Corn futures are showing 5 to 6 1/4 cent gains in most contracts at midday. Some weather models show dryness this week, which should allow for planting when the soils dry out. However, rains are expected to return later in the weekend/beginning of next week. Planting delays are still a worry, particularly if they result in more prevented planting insurance claims. This morning’s weekly EIA report indicated the largest ethanol production and implied corn use number since the week of 1/11 at 1.051 million barrels per day. That was up 15,000 bpd from the previous week, as ethanol stocks were also drawn down by 218,000 barrels to 22.25 million barrels. USDA is expected to show 200,000-500,000 MT of old crop corn sales in the week of May 9, with new crop seen at 100,000-400,000 MT ahead of Thursday’s report. A private Ukrainian consultancy trimmed their corn crop estimate by 2.5 MMT to 33.1 MMT for 2019.

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.75, up 6 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.83 1/4, up 6 cents,

Dec 19 Corn is at $3.93, up 5 1/4 cents

Mar 20 Corn is at $4.04 1/2, up 5 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are 3 to 4 cents higher in the front months on Wednesday, 10-12 cents off their overnight highs in most contracts. July soy meal is up $2/ton, with soybean oil 25 points higher. The Monthly crush report from NOPA showed that 159.99 mbu of soybeans were crushed by its member in April. That was below most estimates by a million bushels or so and down 0.7% from the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks were slightly higher than the average trade guess at 1.787 billion pounds. Analysts expect the Export Sales report on Thursday to show 100,000-400,000 MT of old crop beans, with 200,000-600,000 MT for new crop bookings. Soymeal is seen at 125,000-400,000, with Soy oil at 5,000-25,000 MT.

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $8.35 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $8.42, up 4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $8.48, up 4 cents,

Nov 19 Soybeans are at $8.59 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal is at $300.00, up $2.00

Jul 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.25, up $0.25

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are trading 1 to 6 cents higher in the winter wheat contracts at midday, with MPLS slightly lower in the front months and deferred contracts higher. The trade range of estimates ahead of Thursday’s Export Sales report show 0-250,000 MT for old crop wheat sales in the week of 5/9. New crop is seen at 150,000-350,000 MT. Ukraine’s wheat crop for 2019 is expected to be at 26.2 MMT according to one of the country’s consultants, up 1.6 MMT from their previous number. USDA is at 29 MMT. For the first time in more than a decade, Australia is importing it’s first cargo of wheat, following tight local supplies in recent years.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.53 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.10 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.22 3/4, down 1/2 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are showing 25 to 40 cent gains in the nearby contracts. Feeder cattle futures are mostly a dime to $1.175 lower, with May up 20 cents. Gains in corn are pressuring feeders. The CME feeder cattle index was down 32 cents to $135.07 on May 13. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Wednesday morning. Choice boxes were up 41 cents at $220.53 with Select boxes 50 cents lower @ $208.47. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 242,000 head through Tuesday. That was up 2,000 head from the previous week and 5,000 above the same week last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction saw sales on 280 of the 376 head at $117. Most other cash sales around the country today have started the week at that $117.

Jun 19 Cattle are at $109.750, up $0.250,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $107.050, up $0.325,

Oct 19 Cattle are at $106.800, up $0.325,

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $136.200, up $0.200

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.400, down $0.100

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.250, down $0.325

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are up 50 cents to $1.95 on Wednesday. China’s Ag Ministry pegged the country’s soy herd in April down 22.3% from last year, with the hog herd down 20.8% year over year. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 23 cents from the previous day @ $83.27 on May 13. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.28 higher at $89.92 on Wednesday morning. That was led by a $12.25 gain in the belly, as all other primals were lower. The national average base hog was $81.87 on Wednesday, down 14 from the previous day. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 921,000 head for the WTD through Tuesday. That was 21,000 head below the previous week but 6,000 above the same week last year.

Jun 19 Hogs are at $91.075, up $1.950,

Jul 19 Hogs are at $91.400, up $1.350

Aug 19 Hogs are at $92.425, up $1.250

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are mixed in the front months at Wednesday’s midday. July is down 9 points with other nearby contracts higher. USDA will release their weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning, with data for the week ending May 9, a period following the US tweet about raising tariffs but while talks were continuing. The Chinese yuan is the weakest vs. the dollar since January, making imports of US cotton more expensive. The Cotlook A index for May 14 was down 300 points from the previous day to 76.00 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 64.65 cents/lb, down 3.62 cents from last week.

Jul 19 Cotton is at 66.67, down 9 points,

Oct 19 Cotton is at 68.08, up 62 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 67.18, up 19 points

Mar 20 Cotton is at 68.080, unch,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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