Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Tue Jun 11, 12:19PM CDT

Corn futures are posting 12 to 14 cent gains in most contracts at midday. The monthly WASDE report saw a 100 mbu jump to old crop US carryout at 2.195 bbu, mainly due to a reduction to exports. To the surprise of some, USDA actually slashed their 2019 US corn production number by 1.350 billion to 13.680 bbu. That was mainly driven by a 10 bpa drop to projected yield at 166 bpa, with planted acreage down 3 million acres to 89.8 million. That caused 19/20 ending stocks to drop 810 mbu to 1.675 bbu. On the world side, USDA gave Brazil 18/19 corn production another boost, up 1 to 101 MMT, while CONAB increased their number by 1.76 to 97.01 MMT. USDA’s old crop world stocks projection was down just 0.56 to 325.38 MMT, while new crop was shifted 24.19 MMT lower at 290.52 MMT. On Monday. NASS showed that 83% of the US corn crop was planted as of June 9, still lagging the 99% average, with emergence pegged at 62%. Initial corn ratings were at 59% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index at 355.

Jul 19 Corn is at $4.29 1/4, up 13 1/2 cents,

Sep 19 Corn is at $4.37 1/4, up 13 1/4 cents,

Dec 19 Corn is at $4.48, up 13 1/2 cents

Mar 20 Corn is at $4.56 1/2, up 13 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are getting help from strength in corn, up 3 to 4 1/2 cents on Tuesday. Soymeal is up $1.50/ton, with bean oil a point lower. On Tuesday morning, USDA made a 75 mbu revision to their old crop US carryout at 1.07 bbu, with the increase coming from a reduction to projected exports. That also translated to the same jump in 2019/20 ending stocks at 1.045 bbu, as USDA left the rest of the 19/20 S&D table alone. The WAOB left the Brazil and Argentine production estimates at 117 MMT and 56 MMT respectively, while CONAB estimates released this morning showed Brazil at 114.84 MMT, a 0.54 MMT increase from last month. USDA world soybean ending stocks were trimmed by 0.38 to 112.80 MMT for 18/19, with new crop also down 0.43 to 112.66 MMT. The weekly Crop Progress report indicated that 60% of the US soybeans crop was planted by Sunday, with 34% emerged.

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $8.62 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $8.69 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $8.76 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents,

Nov 19 Soybeans are at $8.89 3/4, up 4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal is at $314.90, up $1.50

Jul 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.37, down $0.01

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are showing 3 to 10 cent gains in most winter wheat contracts on Tuesday with MPLS down fractionally to 7 cents. The monthly S&D update from USDA showed old crop wheat ending stocks for US down 25 mbu to 1.102 bbu, on an increase to exports. USDA also added 6 mbu to the US wheat production number at 1.903 bbu, mainly from an addition to winter wheat. Lower carryover and a 50 mbu jump in feed and residual caused 19/20 carryout to drop 69 mbu to 1.072 bbu. On the world side, USDA raised old crop carryout by 1.59 to 276.57 MMT, as projected Russian exports were cut 1 MMT. New crop world stocks were up 1.33 MMT to 294.34 MMT. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed that winter wheat harvest was 4% complete, shy of the 10% average. Condition ratings were UNCH at 64% good/ex, and 367 on the Brugler500 index. Spring wheat was rated 81% good/excellent, down 2% from last week, with the Brugler500 index @ 388. Egypt’s GASC purchased a total of 120,000 MT of wheat in their tender, with 60,000 MT purchased from each Romania and Russia. There were no US offers as US FOB prices are not currently competitive.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.17 1/2, up 10 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.57 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.67 3/4, down 3/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are mixed, with contracts anywhere from 20 cents lower to 42.5 cents higher. Feeder cattle futures are trading 45 cents to $1.15 lower at midday. The CME feeder cattle index was up 39 cents to $132.26 on June 7. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were up 76 cents at $222.42 with Select boxes 12 cents lower @ $208.67. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter @ 121,000 head. That is 3,000 head larger than the same day last year and steady from last week. USDA trimmed 2019 beef production by 65 million pounds to 22.204 billion, with the reduction mainly in the fourth quarter.

Jun 19 Cattle are at $110.125, up $0.425,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $106.250, down $0.050,

Oct 19 Cattle are at $107.100, down $0.050,

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $138.725, down $1.100

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle are at $139.025, down $0.700

Oct 19 Feeder Cattle are at $139.050, down $0.700

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management




Lean Hog futures are down 12.5 cents in soon to expire June, with other contracts $2 to $2.75 lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 35 cents from the previous day @ $79.95 on June 7. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.46 cents on Tuesday morning at $85.52. The national average base hog was down 89 cents at $75.59 per hundred pounds. Estimated FI hog slaughter for Monday was 477,000 head. That is 10,000 head above last week and 33,000 head larger than the same Monday last year. On Tuesday morning, USDA trimmed 2019 pork production by 35 million pounds to 27.288 billion with the main reduction in the second and third quarters. They also increased expected 2019 exports by 220 million pounds to 6.466 billion.

Jun 19 Hogs are at $79.150, down $0.125,

Jul 19 Hogs are at $84.200, down $2.000

Aug 19 Hogs are at $82.825, down $2.025

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are down 41 to 85 points at midday. The monthly S&D report showed no changes to the cotton table, with old crop carryout left at 4.65 million bales and new crop at 6.4 million bales. For the world numbers, USDA raise old crop by 1.06 million bales to 77.53, with New crop stocks up 1.57 at 77.26 million bales. The USDA weekly Crop Progress report showed US cotton planting advancing just 4% from last week to 75% complete. That is behind the average pace of 87%, with 11% squaring. Condition ratings were down 2% to 44% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index down 9 points to 329. The Cotlook A index for June 10 was down 300 points from the previous day to 76.35 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) from USDA is now 61.51 cents/lb through Thursday.

Jul 19 Cotton is at 65.58, down 41 points,

Oct 19 Cotton is at 65.02, down 85 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 64.95, down 62 points

Mar 20 Cotton is at 65.760, down 65 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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