Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Mon Aug 12, 5:24PM CDT

Corn futures saw limit losses in the nearby contracts on Monday, as USDA data was different than most trade estimates. We will see expanded limits of 40 cents per bushel on Tuesday. This morning’s USDA report showed updated planted acreage numbers from USDA down 1.7 million acres from July at 90.005 million acres with harvested acreage at 82.017 mac (down 1.6 mac). Data from FSA showed producers enrolling in 11.211 million acres of prevent plant for corn as of August 1. NASS also raised yield by 3.5 bpa to 169.5 bpa, which took production to 13.901 bbu, up 26 mbu from July. Analysts were expecting a ~700 mbu drop. Old crop US carryout was raised by 20 mbu to 2.36 bbu, with new crop up 171 mbu to 2.181 bbu. World ending stocks were slightly lower at 328.58 MMT for old crop, as new crop was up 8.8 to 307.72 MMT. USDA Export Inspections data showed 703,183 MT of corn shipped in the week that ended on August 8. A shipment of 53,788 MT of sorghum was headed to China. After the close, NASS reported 90% of the US corn crop silking (97% avg), 39% in the dough stage (61% average), and 7% dented (16% avg) as of Sunday. Crop ratings were unch at 57% gd/ex and 351 on the Brugler500 index.

SEP 19 Corn closed at $3.85 1/4, down 25 cents,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.92 3/4, down 25 cents,

MAR 20 Corn closed at $4.03 1/4, down 25 cents

MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.09, down 25 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures closed the crazy Monday session with most nearby contracts 11 to 12 1/2 cents lower. USDA’s soybean data was mostly friendly, with limit losses in corn providing the pressure. August soybean meal was down $4.80/ton, with soy oil 13 points higher. The NASS resurvey of producers shows 76.7 million acres planted to soybeans, down 3.3 mac from the June survey. FSA data also shows producers enrolling 4.351 million acres for soybean prevent plant as of August 1. USDA left projected yield unch from July at 48.5 bpa, taking production to 3.68 bbu (-165 mbu) on the smaller acreage. For old crop, WOAB raised ending stocks for the US by 20 mbu to 1.07 bbu, with new crop down 40 mbu to 755 mbu. World soybean carryout was up 1.55 to 114.53 MMT for old crop, with new crop down 2.79 to 101.74 MMT. The weekly Export inspections report indicated that 944,238 MT of soybeans were shipped during the week of 8/8, with 468,230 MT headed to China. Total shipments were down from last week but 62.36% larger than last year at this time. Crop Progress data showed soybeans at 82% blooming as of Sunday (93% avg), with 54% reported as setting pods (76%). Condition ratings were unch on the gd/ex score at 54%, as the Brugler500 was down 1 to 346.

AUG 19 Soybeans closed at $8.61 1/2, down 12 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $8.66 3/4, down 12 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $8.79 1/4, down 12 1/2 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans closed at $8.92 3/4, down 12 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal closed at $291.90, down $4.80,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.64, up $0.13

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures settled Monday with 22 to 27 3/4 cent losses in most winter wheat contracts on, as MPLS was the firmest but still down 10 1/2 cents in nearby Sep. USDA data updated this morning showed all wheat production at 1.980 bbu, up 59 mbu from July. That increase came from a mix of all winter wheat (up 35.4 mbu) at 1.326 bbu and spring wheat (up 21.3 mbu) at 596.66 mbu. Winter wheat yield was raised 1.4 bpa to 53.2 bpa. New crop US wheat carryout was up 14 mbu to 1.014 bbu. World wheat ending stocks for new crop were down 1.06 MMT to 285.4. According to FSA data, producers claimed 2.209 million acres of wheat as prevented plant. Weekly wheat shipments totaled 688,978 MT in the week that ended on August 8. That was 65.55% larger than the previous week and 41.36% above this week in 2018. Following the closing bell, weekly Crop Progress data showed the winter wheat harvest at 89% complete (96% avg), with spring wheat just 8% harvested (30% avg). Spring wheat conditions slipped 3% to 69% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 down 6 to 372. A Taiwan tender for 94,950 MT of US wheat will close this Wednesday. Private Russian wheat production estimates from IKAR were trimmed by 0.5 to 75.5 MMT, vs. USDA (down another 1.2 from July) at 73 MMT.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.71 3/4, down 27 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.92 1/4, down 24 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.09 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures posted limit losses in the nearby contracts on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were also locked limit down. Both will see expanded limits on Tuesday. The kill will likely be lower this week due to the Tyson fire in KS and an indefinite shut down there. The plant typically kills 5,000-6,000 per day that now have to find another place to go. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down 56 cents on August 9 at $141.10. Wholesale boxed beef prices were sharply higher on Monday afternoon due to the loss in potential supply. Choice boxes were up $2.25 at $218.62, with Select boxes up $3.98 @ $197.79. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 115,000 head, down 4,000 head from the previous week and 2,000 head below the same week last year. Updated USDA data shows projected 2019 beef production down 86 million lbs from July, at 27.129 billion lbs. For 2020 projected production was raised by 145 million lbs to 27.565 billion.

AUG 19 Cattle closed at $105.050, down $3.000,

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $103.750, down $3.000,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $108.450, down $3.000,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $134.400, down $4.500

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $133.950, down $4.500

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $133.750, down $4.500

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures closed Monday mixed, with the front months slightly higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 52 cents from the previous day on August 8 at $82.33. The weekly Fresh Bacon Index was up $12.48 at $199.32 on 8/9. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 25 cents on Monday afternoon at $90.19. The national average base hog value was down another $1.87 in the Monday AM report at $69.00. Estimated FI hog slaughter for Monday is 466,000 head, up 39,000 head from the previous week and 1,000 head below the same week a year ago. Pork production for 2019 is projected at 27.633 billion lbs, down 15 million from the July report. Production in 2020 is expected at 28.41 billion lbs. per USDA.

AUG 19 Hogs closed at $79.175, up $0.150,

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $67.075, up $0.100

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $63.775, down $0.900

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures ended the Monday session with 75 to 112 point losses. USDA data on Monday showed 13.903 million planted acres of cotton following USDA’s resurvey, up 180,000 acres from July. Data out of the FSA showed 490,058 acres of prevent plant for cotton as of August 1. The projected yield from NASS was 855 lb/ac, up 10 pounds from July. US carryout for old crop was up 250,000 bales to 5.25 million bales, as new crop ending stocks were up 500,000 bales to 7.2 million. World stocks for 18/19 were up 1 million to 80.27 million bales, as new crop was up 2.03 million to 82.45 million bales. NASS Crop Progress data showed 77% of the crop setting bolls (76% avg), with 20% of the crop with bolls opening (10% avg). Condition ratings were up 2% to 56% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index up 5 to 354. The Cotlook A was up 70 cents on August 9 at 71.00 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 52.67 cents/lb, down 4.29 cents from the previous week.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 57.93, down 112 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 58.15, down 75 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 58.96, down 90 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 60.17, down 88 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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