Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Tue Aug 13, 7:27AM CDT

Corn futures are 5 to 15 cents per bushel lower in the aftermath of the Monday USDA data dump. They were limit down on Monday as USDA’s crop estimate was much different than trade estimates. Expanded limits of 40 cents per bushel are in effect today. The USDA report showed planted acreage down 1.7 million acres from July at 90.005 million acres with harvested acreage at 82.017 mac (down 1.6 mac). Data from FSA showed producers enrolling in 11.211 million acres of prevent plant for corn as of August 1. NASS also raised yield by 3.5 bpa to 169.5 bpa, which took production to 13.901 bbu, up 26 mbu from July. Analysts were expecting a ~700 mbu drop. Old crop US carryout was raised by 20 mbu to 2.36 bbu, with new crop up 171 mbu to 2.181 bbu. World ending stocks were slightly lower at 328.58 MMT for old crop, as new crop was up 8.8 to 307.72 MMT. After the close yesterday, NASS reported 90% of the US corn crop silking (97% avg), 39% in the dough stage (61% average), and 7% dented (16% avg) as of Sunday. Crop ratings were unch at 57% gd/ex and 351 on the Brugler500 index.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are 4 to 5 cents higher this morning on Turnaround Tuesday fading after Monday weakness. August soybean meal was down $4.80/ton, with soy oil 13 points higher. The NASS resurvey of producers shows 76.7 million acres planted to soybeans, down 3.3 million from the June survey. FSA data also shows producers enrolling 4.351 million acres for soybean prevent plant as of August 1. USDA left projected yield unch from July at 48.5 bpa, taking production to 3.68 bbu (-165 mbu) on the smaller acreage. WAOB raised old crop ending stocks for the US by 20 mbu to 1.07 bbu, with new crop down 40 mbu to 755 mbu. World soybean carryout was up 1.55 to 114.53 MMT for old crop, with new crop down 2.79 to 101.74 MMT. The weekly Export inspections were 62% larger than last year at this time. Crop Progress data showed 82% of the soybeans blooming as of Sunday (93% avg), with 54% setting pods (76%). Condition ratings were unch on the gd/ex score at 54%, as the Brugler500 was down 1 to 346.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are UNCH to 3 cents lower across the three markets, with MPLS the firmest. Both KC and CHI had double digit losses on Monday. USDA put all wheat production at 1.980 bbu, up 59 mbu from July. That increase came from a mix of winter wheat (up 35.4 mbu) at 1.326 bbu and Other Spring wheat (up 21.3 mbu) at 596.66 mbu. Winter wheat yield was raised 1.4 bpa to 53.2 bpa. New crop US wheat carryout was up 14 mbu to 1.014 bbu. World wheat ending stocks for new crop were down 1.06 MMT to 285.4. According to FSA data, producers claimed 2.209 million acres of wheat as prevented plant. Following the closing bell, weekly Crop Progress data showed the winter wheat harvest at 89% complete (96% avg), with spring wheat just 8% harvested (30% avg). Spring wheat conditions slipped 3% to 69% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 down 6 to 372. USDA cut projected Russian production another 1.2 MMT from July to 73 MMT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures posted limit losses in the nearby contracts on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were also locked limit down. Both will see expanded limits today. The kill will likely be lower this week due to the Tyson fire in KS and an indefinite shut down there. The Garden City plant typically kills 5,000-6,000 head per day that now have to find another place to go. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down 56 cents on August 9 at $141.10. Wholesale boxed beef prices were sharply higher on Monday afternoon due to the disruption in supply. Choice boxes were up $2.25 at $218.62, with Select boxes up $3.98 @ $197.79. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 115,000 head, down 4,000 head from the previous week and 2,000 head below the same week last year. Updated USDA data shows projected 2019 beef production down 86 million lbs from July, at 27.129 billion lbs. For 2020 projected production was raised by 145 million lbs to 27.565 billion.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures closed Monday mixed, with the front months slightly higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 52 cents at $82.33. The weekly Fresh Bacon Index was up $12.48 at $199.32 on 8/9. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 25 cents on Monday afternoon at $90.19. The national average base hog value was down another $1.87 in the Monday AM report at $69.00. Estimated FI hog slaughter for Monday is 466,000 head, up 39,000 head from the previous week and 1,000 head below the same week a year ago. Pork production for 2019 is projected at 27.633 billion lbs, down 15 million from the July report. Production in 2020 is expected at 28.41 billion lbs. per USDA.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are trading 5 to 33 points lower this morning. They ended the Monday session with 75 to 112 point losses. USDA data on Monday showed 13.903 million planted acres of cotton following USDA’s resurvey, up 180,000 acres from July. FSA showed 490,058 acres of prevent plant for cotton as of August 1. The projected yield from NASS was 855 lb/ac, up 10 pounds from July. US carryout for old crop was up 250,000 bales to 5.25 million bales, as new crop ending stocks were up 500,000 bales to 7.2 million. Projected world ending stocks for 18/19 were up 1 million to 80.27 million bales, as new crop was up 2.03 million to 82.45 million bales. NASS Crop Progress data showed 77% of the crop setting bolls (76% avg), with 20% of the crop with bolls opening (10% avg). Condition ratings were up 2% to 56% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index up 5 to 354. The Cotlook A was up 70 cents on August 9 at 71.00 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 52.67 cents/lb, through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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