Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Tue Aug 13, 5:36PM CDT

Corn futures were lower again on Tuesday, falling 10 to 19 1/4 cents in the front months. Monday’s WASDE report showed reduced estimated corn FSI (from ethanol) use by 25 mbu in both 18/19 and 19/20. That, along with a 100 mbu reduction for 19/20 exports, contributed to an increase in both old and new ending stock estimates. Monday’s crop ratings by state saw IL down 2 points on the Brugler500 scale, with IN 10 lower and IA down 3. Ratings in NE (+7), MO (+4), and SD (+1) were all reported higher. Parts of the WCB are expected to receive significant rainfall over the next 7 days. A total of 130,000 MT of optional origin corn was purchased by two South Korean importers on Tuesday.

SEP 19 Corn closed at $3.66, down 19 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.76 1/2, down 16 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn closed at $3.90, down 13 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.98 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures closed 9 to 10 1/2 cents higher on Turnaround Tuesday. August soybean meal was up $5.70/ton, with soy oil 47 points lower. The monthly WASDE balance sheet update saw a 20 mbu reduction to the soybean crush estimate for old crop. Besides the smaller production, new crop saw a 100 mbu drop to projected exports at 1.775 bbu, as carryout was still down 40 mbu. On the world side, WAOB cut 2 MMT from China’s projected imports to 83 MMT for 18/19 and 875 MMT for 19/20. State by state conditions ratings in IL (-2), MN(-3), IA (-4), and IN (-6) were all lower. Of the major states, NE (+1) and OH (+5) were higher.

AUG 19 Soybeans closed at $8.72, up 10 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $8.76 1/4, up 9 1/2 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $8.89, up 9 3/4 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans closed at $9.02, up 9 1/4 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal closed at $297.80, up $5.70,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.17, down 47 points,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures ended Tuesday down 5 to 9 cents in the KC and MPLS contracts, with CBT SRW 2 cents higher in nearby Sept. The nearby CBT-KC spread widened to 88 1/2 cents. On Monday, USDA added 25 mbu to the new crop export projection at 975 mbu, as well as a 20 mbu increase to feed and residual. Those were not enough to offset the jump in production as ending stocks were up 14 mbu. USDA also cut the average farm price by 20 cents to $5.00. The WAOB also cut projected Russian production another 1.2 MMT from July to 73 MMT, despite improvement in conditions at the tail end of the growing season there. On Monday, Argentina’s peso slipped 15% against the US dollar, effectively lowering the price of their wheat to third party destinations.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.72, up 2 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.83 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.03 1/4, down 6 cents,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures posted limit losses in the front months. Feeder cattle futures were down $6.20 to the limit on Tuesday. Both will see expanded limits on Wednesday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $1.02 cents on August 12 at $140.08. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher Tuesday afternoon. The Choice boxes were up $7.74 at $226.36, with Select boxes higher $2.79 @ $200.58. The Chc/Sel spread widened to $25.78, the highest point since June 2017. USDA estimated the week to date FI cattle slaughter at 231,000 head, down 6,000 head from the previous week and 5,000 head below the same week last year. Cash action has yet to be reported this week but is expected to be lower due to the lower kill capacity in Kansas. Wednesday’s FCE auction has 462 head on the showlist.

AUG 19 Cattle closed at $100.550, down $4.50,

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $99.250, down $4.50,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $103.950, down $4.50,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $127.725, down $6.675,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $127.200, down $6.75,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $127.550, down $6.20,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures saw 75 cent to $2.50 losses on Tuesday, with soon to expire Aug down 17.5 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 58 cents at $81.75. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 98 cents on Tuesday afternoon at $89.21. Bellies were $1.58 lower on Tuesday, the first decline in four days. The national average base hog value was rose $1.26 cents in the Tuesday report at $70.01. Estimated FI hog slaughter for week to date was 938,000 head, a 34,000 head increase from the previous week and 1,000 head more the same week a year ago.

AUG 19 Hogs closed at $79.000, down $0.175,

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $64.575, down $2.50,

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $63.025, down $0.75,

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures Posted 100 to 143 point gains in most contracts on Tuesday. President Trump is delaying implementation of the 10% tariffs on some Chinese goods until December, with a few categories waived entirely. There are hopes that the Chinese will reciprocate. Monday’s monthly update to the US cotton balance sheets showed a 280,000 bale reduction to 18/19 exports at 14.22 million bales. New crop projections show a 200,000 bale jump to new crop shipments at 17.2 million bales. USDA also dropped the average farm price projection by 3 cents to 60 cents/lb. On Monday, condition ratings by state saw TX up 11 points, with GA down the same. The Cotlook A was down .65 points on August 12 at 70.35 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 52.67 cents/lb, through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 59.2, up 117 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 59.57, up 143 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 60.22, up 132 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 61.15, up 100 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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