Trading Coach - Actionable Market Levels - Aug 22 2019
John Caruso of RJO Futures - InsideFutures.com - Thu Aug 22, 7:42AM CDT

Actionable Levels:

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

SP500

Bearish

28322936

VIX (Cash)

Bullish

15.08

23.27

OIL

Bearish

51.18

56.84

GOLD

Bullish

1476

1532

10YR (Yield)

Bearish

1.461.75
Volatitlity is coming in a bit as we head into the Jackson Hole Symposium. The question that looms is whether Jerome Powell and the Fed will be dovish enough. The market is insistint upon a 50bps cut (so is the President for that matter), but the Fed continues to operate on a "lag". We place the highest odds on another 25 bps cut at the Sept meeting, and we're of the opinion the market will NOT like that. Our top holdings remain Gold and UST's. We are not bullish on equities at the moment as our predictive growth/inflation model suggests positioning for more near-term downside until the Fed can catches up. The Fed is behind and the yield curve is suggesting so!
Gold- We like gold at any price really, but we prefer to wait for the lower half of our range (1476) to hit the "buy" button for customers.
Oil- registered Overbought yesterday in our model, with downside potential back to 54-53 area.
Good Luck, Remember to sign up for these trade signals to come to you LIVE by email! Feel free to email me at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or tweet at me.

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Trade with the trend are words commonly echoed by professional traders. At what price does one sell in a bearish trending market and at what price does one buy in a bullish trending market? The Market Navigator is intended to provide guide posts to identify those price levels.

How to use our strategy:

Guidelines

The rules based strategy is simple.

If a market is in aBullishtrend a trader should only be looking to participate as abuyerand only at thelowend of the range.

If a market is in aBearishtrend a trader should only be looking to participate as asellerand only at thehighend of the range.

If a market is in aNeutraltrend a trader should be looking to participate as abuyeronly at thelowend of the range OR as aselleronly at thehighend of the range.

Trend

Determining how a market is currently trending depends on the time line. I typically track markets on both a monthly and weekly timeframe to identify trend bias. In my experience, studying market price, action, and behavior, Ive observed that markets that trend bullish or bearish on a 3-month timeline tend to hold that posture for an extended period of time.

With this in mind, all markets have the tendency to revert back to the mean, whether bullish or bearish trend. In other words, you get bull market dips that create buying opportunities, and bear market rips that create selling opportunities.

Range

Trading ranges are determined by an ongoing tug of war on price levels between buyers and sellers. The top end of a range is typically where buying pressure has run out of steam and the number of sellers overwhelms the market and pushes it lower. Conversely, the bottom end of a range is typically where selling pressure has run out of steam and the number of buyers overwhelms the market and pushes it higher.

Range trading with the trend enables one to participate in a market with predefined entry target levels while keeping the overall bias in sync with the market trend. My proprietary trading range levels can be viewed as support and resistance levels, however unlike traditional static support and resistance, my levels update on the open and close of the market and may be different each period depending on market volatility. The levels factor in both the medium term and near term price action.

Use these levels to help manage market swings and risk. Remember, the amount of risk that you accept is the only aspect of the market you control.Sign up for a free 2 week demo of ourRJOF PRO Trading Platformand John Caruso will include you on his daily email distribution during the trial period.

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