Daily Grain & Cotton Commentary
Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures - InsideFutures.com - Tue Oct 22, 7:55AM CDT

Corn (December)

Fundamentals: Corn futures rolled over yesterday as new bullish headlines were hard to come by. Futures are rebounding early this morning after the weekly crop progress report showed harvest is just 30% completed, 3-4% behind already lagging expectations. There is also some fresh optimism about phase 1 of the trade deal being signed in mid-November when the two leaders meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile. You may consider taking these optimistic trade headlines with a grain of salt.

Technicals: The market had bearish close yesterday, closing below our pivot pocket from 390-392 . Thanks to a few positive headlines the market has found its footing in the early morning trade, the bulls need to see this confirmed by volume when the floor opens. Our bias remains bullish so long as the bulls can continue to defend our 4-star support pocket from 377-381 .

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 400-402 ***, 412 -417 ****

Pivot: 390-392

Support: 377-381 ****, 363-366***


Soybeans (November)

Fundamentals: The market has had multiple tails on the chart over the last two weeks, failing to find the news to break it out above technical resistance. Yesterdays crop progress did little to help the case, harvest was reported as 46% complete, ahead of expectations. The wild card continues to be a trade deal, and fresh headlines overnight has renewed that optimism (again). Reports are that the two sides could potentially be ready to sign a deal in mid-November at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile. You may consider taking these optimistic trade headlines with a grain of salt.

Techncials: Technicals and money flow is something weve been harping on for the last two months and it continues to be friendly. With that said the chart has been struggling to attract new buyers near our technical resistance pocket from 948-950, this pocket represents the June highs. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket, we could see an extension towards 963 -969 , the top end of the range from February. The bull camp remains in control until we start seeing consecutive closes below support near 920.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 948-950****, 963 -969 ***

Pivot: 936 -938

Support: 915 -920***, 899-906 ****


Chicago Wheat (December)

Fundamentals: December wheat futures made highs early on in the session but reversed to close near the lows of the day as weakness in the broader grain complex was unavoidable. Renewed optimism around trade has the grain complex recovering some of those loses in the early morning session. Yesterdays crop progress report showed spring wheat harvest at 96% complete, inline with expectations. Winter wheat planting is 77% complete, inline with expectations and 2% ahead of the five-year average.

Technicals: The market reversed yesterday which led to a little weakness on last nights open, taking prices near first support at 515 , this represents previous resistance and a key Fibonacci retracement. The bulls remain in control so long as they can defend this area. On the resistance side of things, 538 -543 is our pocket. This pocket represents the July highs and the 50% retracement from the contract highs to the contract lows (middle of the range).

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 538 -543***, 561-565 ****

Pivot: 525 -531

Support:515 -518 ***, 500-506 ****


Kansas City Wheat (December)

Technicals: First technical resistance held yesterday, we had defined that as 437-439 , this pocket represents a key retracement and the 100-day moving average. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above here, we could see a run towards the 50% retracement, 454. If the bulls cannot find the strength to breakout, we could see prices retreat towards first support at 415 -420, which the market tried to do overnight.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias:Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 437-439 ***, 454-457 ****

Pivot: 428-432

Support: 415 -420**, 397-400***, 380*


Cotton (December)

Fundamentals: Cotton futures gave back a little ground yesterday, much of which was related to profit taking and broad-based selling in the agricultural sector. Yesterdays crop progress report showed harvest is 40% complete, 5% ahead of the five-year average. Conditions came in at 41% good/excellent, up 3%. The wild card continues to be a trade deal, and fresh headlines overnight has renewed that optimism (again). Reports are that the two sides could potentially be ready to sign a deal in mid-November at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile.

Technicals: Yesterdays pullback did little to damage the technical landscape. The trend of higher lows and higher highs remain intact, the bulls just need to see a conviction close above technical resistance to open that door for a leg higher. We have resistance coming in from 65.00-65.85. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above here, we could see an extension towards 68.35-68.60.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias:Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 65.00-65.85****, 68.35-68.60***

Support: 61.72-62.50****, 59.58-60.79***, 56.59-57.55****


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