Superstitions
Jerry Welch - InsideFutures.com - Fri Feb 08, 7:25AM CST

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

My weekly newspaper column, Commodity Insite, was just now finished and I will be sending it off to the handful of weekly ag-newspapers that have been kind enough over the past 25 to 30 years to publish my ramblings. Tomorrow, my brokerage clients and those that subscribe to my twice a day newsletter will receive it as well as those that recently purchased, Haunted By Markets. This week, my column is about superstitions and omens.


This morning, in a chapter entitled, Superstitions from my book, Back To The Futures I thought I would post a few of my ramblings from the 1980s. Hope you find it interesting.

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"One of the most paranoid and superstitious groups of people ever have to be commodity traders. Anyone that has ever participated in the futures markets will tell you the same thing.


The reason for these feelings of paranoia and superstition rests with the general uncertainty of markets. The commodity markets change directions so quickly that the traders are in constant fear of losing money or giving back profits. Or even worse taking a profitable trade and turning it into a loser.


I tend to be the same way. Im as paranoid and superstitious as the next fellow. For example, I never enter into a new market position on Friday the 13th. Never have, never will. And I never schedule an airline flight on that infamous day.


Many commodity traders are hard pressed to remember a wedding anniversary or a spouses birthday. But ask them the date of the next full moon, and theyll rattle off the answer so quick its amazing.


I am always on the alert for an omen. Because you never know when or where they will surface. They work in mysterious ways.


Last week, for example, I was certain that I had stumbled across an omen regarding the hog market. It happened while I was driving to work early on the morning of May 21


While listening to the radio, I heard an announcer urge drivers to avoid a particular stretch of highway. Apparently, a farmers truck blew a tire and the 26 pigs he was hauling tumbled onto the interstate. Pigs went everywhere, said the sergeant describing the scene.


The pigs were dumped into the westbound lane and the police were forced to close both sides of the highway for more than an hour. There were no injuries suffered by the driver. However, according to the sergeant at the scene of the accident there were two pigtalities.


Being a commodity trader, I knew that those hogs spilling onto the highway was an omen. It meant that the hog futures market was about to top out.

The signs were unmistakable. After all, the truck blew out a tire and the hogs took a spill. It didnt take a genius to figure that out. It was obvious that I would recommend shorts and hedges to be placed in the hog market immediately.


Omens should be respected and followed. "

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My newspaper column this week is entitled, "Omens and Oinkers". I chose that title because this week, the oinker market flashed an omen. If you wish to know about the omen, bullish or bearish and what it portends for the future give me a call at 405 682 5010. Or, email me at commodityinsite1@gmail.com.


And don't confuse the email above with my two books, Haunted By Markets and Back To The Futures that can only be found at commodityinsite.com. Both books are about the history of the Big Four: stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. There are no books like those two. And I cannot imagine trading futures without knowing history.


And never, ever forget. There is no substitute for timely and accurate information.


The time now is 7:25 a.m. Chicago

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