Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Fri Mar 08, 12:11PM CST

Corn futures are trading 1 to 3 cents lower in most contracts on Friday. In their monthly WASDE update, USDA increased US ending stocks for 18/19 by 100 mbu to 1.835 bbu. That was due to a reduction to ethanol demand (-25 mbu) and lower exports (-75 mbu). Total commitments are lagging a year ago by 1.5% but accumulated exports are 39.69% larger. On the world side, both Brazil (94.5 MMT) and Argentina (46 MMT) production numbers were UNCH. Ending stocks for 18/19 were down 1.25 MMT at 308.53 MMT on the world balance sheet, with China feed corn usage up 3 MMT as they push a hog diet heavy in corn and lower in soybean meal.

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.55 1/2, down 1/2 cent,

May 19 Corn is at $3.62 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.71 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.78 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are mostly 8 to 9 1/2 cents in the red at midday. Meal futures are down $2/ton in the nearby contract, with soy oil 19 points lower. The USDA reported a private export sale of 664,000 MT of soybeans to China for 18/19 delivery. The meeting between President Trump and President Xi or China, rumored for the end of March, will be later than that according to news reports. China hiked projected full year soy imports to 85 MMT from 83.65 MMT, citing lower canola imports. USDA is at 88 MMT. The US S&D table was shown at a 10 mbu lower carryout for 18/19 of 900 mbu this morning, as crush was raised by that same number. World ending stocks were up 0.45 MMT to 107.17 MMT, with Chinese crush down 1 MMT. Brazilian production was trimmed by 0.5 MMT to 116.5 MMT.

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $8.82 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybeans are at $8.93 1/2, down 9 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.07 1/4, down 9 1/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.13 3/4, down 9 cents,

Mar 19 Soybean Meal is at $300.00, down $2.00

Mar 19 Soybean Oil is at $29.22, down $0.19

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are firm to 3 cents higher in most winter wheat contracts, with March showing thin trade. MPLS is steady to 3 cents lower. USDA added another 45 mbu to their 18/19 US wheat ending stocks projection. That was in part due to a 35 mbu reduction to exports at 965 mbu. The World carryout projection was raised by 3 MMT to 270.53 as well, with Indian stocks up 2.9 MMT. Algeria purchased 300,000 MT of optional origin durum wheat in a tender this week. Turkey is seeking 290,000 MT of wheat in a tender set to close on March 14.

Mar 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.37, up 5 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.31, up 10 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.57, unch ,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are 20 to 55 cents higher at midday. Feeder cattle futures are 10 to 90 cents in the green on Friday. The CME feeder cattle index was up 17 cents on March 6 at $139.76. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher in the Friday morning report. Choice boxes were up 40 cents at $226.44 with Select 39 cents higher at $218.93. USDA has week to date FI cattle slaughter at 466,000 head. Cash trade was reported at $128 in the South, with sales of $128-128.50 and $205 in the North. The Cold Storage report last night showed Jan 31 beef stocks of 510.07 million pounds, slightly above year ago. The delayed February Cattle on Feed report will be released this afternoon, with Feb 1 on feed expected up 0.2%. January placements are seen down 6.5%, as marketings are estimated up 2.4%. The WASDE showed projected beef production for 2019 at 27.3 billion pounds, down 310 million from February. Both first and second quarter production were trimmed by 100 mil lbs on lighter carcass weights.

Apr 19 Cattle are at $129.500, up $0.550,

Jun 19 Cattle are at $120.700, up $0.350,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $116.850, up $0.325,

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.350, up $0.450

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.900, up $0.900

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $147.925, up $0.850

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are posting triple digit gains in most nearby contracts on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 10 cents from the previous day @ $51.75 on March 6. Futures expect cash to rally, but the puzzle pieces haven’t settled into place yet. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 63 cents on Friday morning at an average weighted price of $64.88. The national base hog carcass value was not reported due to confidentiality reasons. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter through Thursday at 1.895 million head. US pork stocks in cold storage at the end of January were 562.71 million pounds, down 3.1% from the year prior. Pork production for 2019 was estimated at 27.43 billion lbs this morning by USDA, up 90 million from last month.

Apr 19 Hogs are at $59.775, up $2.050,

May 19 Hogs are at $68.075, up $1.500

Jun 19 Hogs are at $77.425, up $1.900

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are steady to 28 points higher at midday, with the US dollar index taking profits; down 245 points. USDA left the US cotton balance sheet UNCH this morning, with the only adjustment going to the average farm price range, down 2 cents to 69-71. World ending stocks were up 509,000 bales to 76.09 million on larger Brazil production. The Cotlook A Index was down 40 points on March 7 to 82.25 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 63.42 cents/ lb on Thursday, up 75 points. The Cotton Ginnings report indicated that 17.471 million bales had been ginned as of March 1, down 10.67% from the same time last year.

May 19 Cotton is at 73.39, up 28 points,

Jul 19 Cotton is at 74.53, up 23 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 73.390, up 1 point

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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