Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Mon Mar 11, 7:30AM CDT

Corn futures are trading 1 to 1 1/2 cents higher this morning. They were mixed on Friday, with front months fractionally to 1 1/4 cents lower. May was down 2.35% last week. USDA increased US ending stocks for 2018/19 by 100 mbu to 1.835 bbu. That was due to a reduction to ethanol demand (-25 mbu) and lower exports (-75 mbu). Total export commitments are lagging a year ago by 1.5% but accumulated exports are 39.69% larger. No change was made to feed & residual use, as they will typically wait for the March 29 Grain Stocks report. Projected world ending stocks for 18/19 were down 1.25 MMT at 308.53 MMT on the world balance sheet, with China feed corn usage up 3 MMT. Friday’s CFTC report showed specs in corn futures and options adding 72,318 contracts to their net short position, taking it to 176,777 contracts as of March 5.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents per bushel lower this morning. They posted losses of 6 to 7 cents in the front months on Friday, with May losing 1.73% for the week. Meal futures were down $2.90/ton in the nearby contract, with soy oil 2 points lower. The USDA reported a private export sale of 664,000 MT of soybeans to China for 18/19 delivery on Friday. Bulls will be disappointed if there are not additional sales reported today. China hiked projected full year soy imports to 85 MMT from 83.65 MMT, citing lower canola imports. USDA is at 88 MMT. The US S&D table had a 10 mbu lower US carryout for 2018/19 of 900 mbu, bumping up crush. World ending stocks were up 0.45 MMT to 107.17 MMT, with Chinese crush down 1 MMT. Brazilian production was trimmed by 0.5 MMT to 116.5 MMT with USDA leaving room for late season yield improvement.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are currently 1 to 3 cents lower across the three contract markets. They ended the Friday session with most winter wheat contracts steady to 4 cents higher. MPLS was down 1 to 3 3/4 cents. On the week, May CBT was down 3.88%, with KC 3.15% lower and MPLS 1.61% in the red. USDA added another 45 mbu to their 18/19 US wheat ending stocks projection, with a 35 mbu reduction to exports.. The World carryout projection was raised by 3 MMT to 270.53 as well, with Indian stocks up 2.9 MMT. The Friday afternoon Commitment of Traders report indicated money managers in CBT futures and options added 13,882 contracts to their net short position of 72,449 contracts as of March 5. In KC wheat futures and options, they bumped their record net short position up to -44,870 contracts.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were up 40 to 75 cents on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were up 70 cents to $1.70 on the day, with March up 1.91% for the week. The CME feeder cattle index was up 27 cents on March 7 at $140.03. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher in the Friday afternoon report, with Choice boxes up 9 cents and Select 24 cents higher. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 603,000 head. Cash cattle traded at $128-128.50 last week, with $205 in the North. The delayed February Cattle on Feed report released on Friday showed 11.678 million head on feed February 1, up 0.41% from February 2018. January placements were down 5.27% from last year at 1.959 million head, while marketings were up 2.8% at 1.91 million head. The WASDE report put projected 2019 beef production at 27.3 billion pounds, down 310 million from February. Both first and second quarter production were trimmed by 100 mil lbs on lighter carcass weights.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures saw strong $1.25 to $2.825 gains in most contracts on Friday, with April up 7.36% for the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 10 cents from the previous day @ $51.75 on March 6. Futures expect cash to rally, but the Index hasn’t budged. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 79 cents on Friday at an average weighted price of $65.04. The national base hog carcass value was up $1.21 on Friday afternoon at a weighted average of $45.86. Those are good arguments for the Index eventually rallying. Pork production for 2019 was estimated at 27.43 billion lbs by USDA, up 90 million from last month’s WASDE report.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 11 to 17 points higher this morning. They settled with 12 to 38 point gains in the front months on Friday. USDA left the US cotton balance sheet UNCH, with the only adjustment a reduction in the average farm price range, down 2 cents to 69-71. Expected World ending stocks were hiked 509,000 bales to 76.09 million on larger Brazil production. The Cotlook A Index was down 40 points on March 7 to 82.25 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 63.42 cents/ lb on Thursday, up 75 points. The Cotton Ginnings report indicated 17.471 million bales had been ginned as of March 1, down 10.67% from the same time last year. Spec in cotton futures and options trimmed their large net short position, now at 18,301 contracts, by 2,723 contracts in the week of 3/5.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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