Corn - Just My Opinion
Tom Fritz of International Futures Group - - Wed Mar 13, 3:01PM CDT

March Corn closed three quarters of a cent higher ($3.57.25), July three quarters of a cent higher ($3.76.25) & Dec three quarters of a cent higher ($3.92.25)

April Chgo Ethanol Closed $0.019 cents a gallon higher ($1.330) & May $0.017 cents higher ($1.342)

Weekly Ethanol Grind Week ending March 8th 1.005 M. bpd vs. 1.024 M. bpd week ago Stocks 23.7 M. bbls vs. 24.3 M bbls week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales old crop vs. 800 K 1.200 M T. expected new crop vs. 0-300 K T. expected

Tuesday night, early Wednesday was spent trying to retrace the Tuesday rally (at one point down 2 cents). Mid-morning additional speculative short covering emerged rallying prices into minor buy stops sitting above recent daily highs (at one point up 4 cents). This rally faded back to just fractionally easier on the day uncovering just enough buying to keep prices steady to marginally higher for the balance of the day. Topics of discussion ranged from too much snow and cold in the Northern Plains to too much moisture elsewhere in the Midwest all leading to potential flooding in the weeks ahead. For what it is worth; after the current weather system moves through we should see a weeks worth of clear weather with near normal temps in the central Midwest while staying cooler than normal as one moves west, northwest. The rumor mill talked about some Chinese corn buying off of the PNW but so far it is just that, an unfounded rumor.

Most interior cash corn locations run unchanged on the day. I did see on Illinois River location push its bid 3 cents. The Gulf midday posting ran about 1 cent better vs. last night. Corn spreads ran steady out to the Dec. Overall corn spreads stay wide. The July/Dec spread sits at contract lows; 16 under to 16 under.

For those that are thinking we are getting close to some sort of interim lows todays session had to be somewhat encouraging. The ability to hold on to Tuesdays rally despite trying to sell off has to be viewed in a positive light. Despite the short covering we saw on Tuesday and what we saw today it remains my thought the speculative trade remains too short for this time of year; the beginning of the planting season. The producer needs some sort of encouragement to get out there and do what he does best; plant & grow corn. Higher prices in the current time frame can provide that encouragement.

Daily Support & Resistance for 03/14

July Corn: $3.73 - $3.80

Dec Corn: $3.89 - $3.96


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Contact me! Tom Fritz, Agricultural Market Analyst at 1.800.786.4475.

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