Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Wed Jul 10, 5:10PM CDT

Corn futures saw 1 to 2 1/2 cent gains in most contracts on Wednesday. Traders were squaring their positions prior to Thursday’s USDA reports. Spillover from strength in soybeans was supportive. This morning’s EIA report showed weekly ethanol production backing off by 34,000 barrels per day in the holiday week of July 5. Weekly production averaged 1.047 million bpd, which was still slightly above the same week last year. Stocks of ethanol were up another 165,000 barrels to 23.009 million barrels. Ahead of Thursday’s monthly USDA update, trade estimates are looking for a slight drop to US production at 13.664 bbu according to a Reuters poll. That comes even though NASS estimated higher planted acreage on June 28, with trade average yield pegged at 165 bpa (-1 mo/mo). WAOB has used the NASS number from the Planted Acreage report every year, and only adjusted the harvested acreage once (1993), in the past 27 years. Analysts estimate that 150,000-400,000 MT of old crop corn was sold for export in the week of July 4, with 100,000-300,000 MT for new crop.

JUL 19 Corn closed at $4.34 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Corn closed at $4.35, up 2 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $4.39 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents

MAR 20 Corn closed at $4.46 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures closed Thursday with gains of 8 to 10 1/4 cents in most contracts. Nearby July soybean meal was up $1.20/ton, with soy oil 9 points higher. US 2019 soybean production is expected to be reduced in Thursday’s USDA balance sheet update, with estimates running 3.866 bbu from Bloomberg survey of analysts (-284 from June). The main reason for that would be the drop to acreage seen in the June 28 report, but yield on average is also seen a dropping 1 bpa to 48.5 bpa. Thursday’s Export Sales report is expected to show 200,000-400,000 MT of 18/19 soybean sales in the week ending on July 4, with 19/20 sales pegged at 50,000-350,000 MT. Meal bookings are expected in the range of 50,000-300,000 MT, with soy oil at 5,000-25,000 MT.

JUL 19 Soybeans closed at $8.93, up 10 1/4 cents,

AUG 19 Soybeans closed at $8.94 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $9.00 1/4, up 8 1/2 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.12 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents,

JUL 19 Soybean Meal closed at $309.10, up $1.20,

JUL 19 Soybean Oil closed at $27.97, up $0.09

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures settled the Wednesday session with most contracts steady to 3 cents higher, ignoring soon to expire July MPLS. All wheat export bookings for the week that ended on July 4 are estimated at 250,000-550,000 MT, ahead of Thursday’s Export Sales report. The USDA Ag Attaché in Australia pegs the 19/20 wheat crop at 21.5 MMT, vs. the official USDA estimate of 22.5 MMT from June. Any changes to that official number would come via tomorrow’s WASDE. Analysts expect to see a ~1.86 MMT drop in the 19/20 world carryout projection to 292.48 MMT. A total of 80,000 MT of US wheat was purchased by two South Korean importers on Wednesday.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.04 3/4, up 2 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.41 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.28 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures ended the day with the nearby contracts 15 to 50 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were down 10 to 52.5 cents in the front months. The CME feeder cattle index was up 32 cents @ $135.76 on July 9. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 31 cents at $214.42 with Select boxes $1.20 lower @ $190.89. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 360,000 head. That was 5,000 below last week and 4,000 head above the same week last year. This morning’s FCE auction showed no sales on the 423 head of cattle offered. Very light bids of $180 in NE have been reported.

AUG 19 Cattle closed at $107.625, down $0.500,

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $108.975, down $0.325,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $113.475, down $0.225,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.350, down $0.525

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.850, down $0.275

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.825, down $0.200

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures saw sharp $2.25 to $2.65 gains in the front months on Wednesday, with July up 37.5 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 67 cents from the previous day @ $71.25 on July 8. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $2.17 in the Wednesday PM report at $71.60. The picnic and rib primals were slightly higher, with the belly $9.32 lower. The national average base hog price was up 64 cents on Wednesday at $67.60. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 1.435 million head. That was up 24,000 head from last week and 76,000 head larger than same week last year.

JUL 19 Hogs closed at $71.750, up $0.375,

AUG 19 Hogs closed at $81.725, up $2.650

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $73.250, up $2.250

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures were 36 to 74 points higher in most contracts to close out the Wednesday session. USDA will update their monthly S&D tables on Thursday, as well as release the weekly Export Sales report. Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible cut to interest rates in their meeting later this month, citing global economic slowdown and uncertainty from the current trade disputes. The Cotlook A index for July 9 was down 120 points from the previous day at 76.65 cents/lb. The USDA AWP is 59.32 cents/lb through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 63.77, up 74 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 63.92, up 64 points

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 65.12, up 45 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 66.1, up 36 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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