Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Thu Jul 11, 7:25AM CDT

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents lower this morning ahead of the Export Sales and WASDE reports. They saw 1 to 2 1/2 cent gains in most contracts on Wednesday. Traders were squaring their positions prior to Thursday’s USDA reports. The EIA report showed weekly ethanol production slowing 34,000 barrels per day in the holiday week of July 5 to 1.047 million bpd. Ethanol stocks were 165,000 barrels to 23.009 million barrels. On average, traders are looking for a slight drop in US production to 13.664 bbu according to a Reuters poll. That comes even though NASS estimated higher planted acreage on June 28, with trade average yield pegged at 165 bpa (-1 mo/mo). WAOB has used the NASS number from the Planted Acreage report every year, and only adjusted the harvested acreage once (1993), in the past 27 years. Analysts estimate that 150,000-400,000 MT of old crop corn was sold for export in the week of July 4, with 100,000-300,000 MT for new crop.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are fractionally lower after closing 8 to 10 1/4 cents higher on Wednesday in most contracts. Nearby July soybean meal was up $1.20/ton, with soy oil 9 points higher. US 2019 soybean production is expected to be reduced in Thursday’s USDA balance sheet update, with trade estimates averaging 3.866 bbu in a Bloomberg survey of analysts (-284 from June). The main reason for that would be the drop to acreage seen in the June 28 report, but yield on average is also seen a dropping 1 bpa to 48.5 bpa. This morning’s USDA Export Sales report is expected to show 200,000-400,000 MT of 18/19 soybean sales in the week ending July 4, with 2019/20 sales pegged at 50,000-350,000 MT. Meal bookings are expected in the range of 50,000-300,000 MT, with soy oil at 5,000-25,000 MT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are trading fractionally lower this morning. They settled most contracts steady to 3 cents higher on Wednesday, ignoring soon to expire July MPLS. All wheat export bookings for the week that ended on July 4 are estimated at 250,000-550,000 MT, ahead of this morning’s Export Sales report. The USDA Ag Attaché in Australia pegs the 19/20 wheat crop at 21.5 MMT, vs. the official USDA estimate of 22.5 MMT from June. Analysts expect to see a ~1.86 MMT drop in the 19/20 world carryout projection to 292.48 MMT. The average trade estimate for US All Wheat production was 1.904 billion bushels in a Bloomberg survey. The range of estimates is nearly 300 million bushels, so there is a bit of confusion out there!

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures ended Wednesday with the nearby contracts 15 to 50 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were down 10 to 52.5 cents in the front months. The CME feeder cattle index was up 32 cents @ $135.76 on July 9. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 31 cents at $214.42 with Select boxes $1.20 lower @ $190.89. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 360,000 head. That was 5,000 below last week and 4,000 head above the same week last year. The weekly FCE auction showed no sales on the 423 head of cattle offered. Very light cash bids of $180 in NE have been reported.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures saw sharp $2.25 to $2.65 gains in the front months on Wednesday, with July up 37.5 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 67 cents from the previous day @ $71.25 on July 8. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $2.17 in the Wednesday PM report at $71.60. The picnic and rib primals were slightly higher, with the volatile belly component $9.32 lower after gaining earlier in the week. The national average base hog price was up 64 cents on Wednesday at $67.60. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 1.435 million head. That was up 24,000 head from last week and 76,000 head larger than same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures were 8 to 22 points lower overnight. They had closed 36 to 74 points higher in most contracts on Wednesday. USDA will update their monthly S&D tables today, as well as release the weekly Export Sales report in just a few minutes. Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible cut to interest rates in their meeting later this month, citing global economic slowdown and uncertainty from the current trade disputes. The Cotlook A index for July 9 was down 120 points from the previous day at 76.65 cents/lb. The USDA AWP is 59.32 cents/lb through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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