Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Mon Aug 12, 12:28PM CDT

Corn futures are posting limit losses at midday, with USDA data going against most trade estimates. This morning’s USDA report showed updated planted acreage numbers from USDA at 90.005 million acres (-1.7 mac from July) with harvested acreage at 82.017 mac (down 1.6 mac). Data from FSA showed producers enrolling in 11.211 million acres of prevent plant for corn as of August 1. NASS also raised yield by 3.5 bpa to 169.5 bpa, which took production to 13.901 bbu, up 26 mbu from July. Old crop US carryout was raised by 20 mbu to 2.36 bbu, with new crop up 171 mbu to 2.181 bbu. World ending stocks were slightly lower at 328.58 MMT for old crop, as new crop was up 8.8 to 307.72 MMT. USDA Export Inspections data showed 703,183 MT of corn shipped in the week that ended on August 8, slightly higher wk/wk but still well behind last year. A shipment of 53,788 MT of sorghum was headed to China.

SEP 19 Corn is at $3.85 1/4, down 25 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.92 3/4, down 25 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.03 1/4, down 25 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.09, down 25 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are down 12 to 14 1/4 cents in the front months on Monday. Some pressure is being felt from limit losses in corn, as USDA’s soybean data was mostly friendly. August soybean meal is down $4.10/ton, with soy oil 15 points lower. The NASS resurvey of producers shows planted soybeans acreage at 76.7 million acres, down 3.3 mac from the June survey. FSA data also shows producers enrolling in 4.351 million acres for soybean prevent plant as of August 1. USDA left projected yield unch from July at 48.5 bpa, taking production to 3.68 bbu (-165 mbu) on the smaller acreage. For old crop, WOAB raised ending stocks for the US by 20 mbu to 1.07 bbu, with new crop down 40 mbu to 755 mbu. World soybean carryout was up 1.55 to 114.53 MMT for old crop, with new crop down 2.79 to 101.74 MMT. The weekly Export inspections report indicated that 944,238 MT of soybeans were shipped during the week of 8/8, with 468,230 MT headed to China. Total shipments were down from last week but 62.36% larger than last year at this time.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.60, down 13 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.65 1/4, down 13 3/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $8.77 1/2, down 14 1/4 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $8.91, down 13 3/4 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $292.60, down $4.10,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $29.36, down $0.15

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are trading 22 to 29 cents lower in most winter wheat contracts on Monday, with MPLS 5 to 12 cents in the red. USDA data updated this morning showed all wheat production at 1.980 bbu, up 59 mbu from July. That increase came from a mix of all winter wheat (up 35.4 mbu) at 1.326 bbu and spring wheat (up 21.3 mbu) at 596.66 mbu. Winter wheat yield was raised 1.4 bpa to 53.2 bpa. New crop US wheat carryout was up 14 mbu to 1.014 bbu. World wheat ending stocks for new crop were down 1.06 MMT to 285.4. According to FSA data, producers enrolled in 2.209 million acres of prevent plant. Weekly wheat shipments totaled 688,978 MT in the week that ended on August 8. That was 65.55% larger than the previous week and 41.36% above this week in 2018. A Taiwan tender for 94,950 MT of US wheat will close this Wednesday. Private Russian wheat production estimates from IKAR were trimmed by 0.5 to 75.5 MMT, vs. USDA (down another 1.2 from July) at 73 MMT.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.71 3/4, down 27 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $3.89 1/4, down 27 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.08, down 11 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are posting limit losses on Monday. Feeder cattle futures are also locked limit down at midday. The kill will likely be lower this week due to the Tyson fire in KS and an indefinite shut down there. The plant typically kills 5,000-6,000 per day that now have to find another place to go. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down 20 cents on August 8 at $141.66. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday morning, tightening the Chc/Sel spread to $20.19/cwt. Choice boxes were up $0.55 at $216.92, with Select boxes up $2.92 @ $196.73. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 645,000 head through Saturday, 19,000 head above the previous week and 2,000 head below the same week last year. Cash trade was reported at $113 in the North, with $110 in the South. Updated USDA data shows projected 2019 beef production down 86 million lbs from July, at 27.129 billion lbs. For 2020 projected production was raised by 145 million lbs to 27.565 billion.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $105.050, down $3.000,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $103.750, down $3.000,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $108.450, down $3.000,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $134.400, down $4.500

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $133.950, down $4.500

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $133.750, down $4.500

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are up 12.5 to 27.5 cents in the front months, with most other contracts steady to $1 lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 52 cents from the previous day on August 8 at $82.33. The weekly Fresh Bacon Index was up $12.48 at $199.32 on 8/9. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $2.93 on Monday morning at $93.37. The belly was up $17.76. The national average base hog value was down another $1.87 in the Monday AM report at $69.00. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 2.354 million head, up 3,000 head from the previous week and 13,000 head above the same week a year ago. Pork production for 2019 is projected at 27.633 billion lbs, down 15 million from the July report. Production in 2020 is expected at 28.41 billion lbs.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $79.150, up $0.125,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $67.250, up $0.275

DEC 19 Hogs are at $63.700, down $0.975

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are down 89 to 129 points in the nearby contracts on Monday. USDA data on Monday showed 13.903 million planted acres of cotton following USDA’s resurvey, up 180,000 acres from July. The projected yield from NASS showed 855 lb/ac, up 10 pounds mo/mo. US carryout for old crop was up 250,000 bales to 5.25 million bales, as new crop ending stocks were up 500,000 bales to 7.2 million. World stocks for 18/19 were up 1 million to 80.27 million bales, as new crop was up 2.03 million to 82.45 million bales. The Cotlook A was up 70 cents on August 9 at 71.00 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 52.67 cents/lb, down 4.29 cents from the previous week. Loan rate is 52 cents, below which cotton is eligible for LDP and MLG payments and offer arbitrage opportunities to producers.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 57.76, down 129 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 57.98, down 92 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 58.91, down 95 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 60.16, down 89 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.