Trading the Noise - Blue Line Morning Express
Bill Baruch of Blue Line Futures - InsideFutures.com - Thu Aug 22, 8:27AM CDT
Morning Express

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E-mini S&P (September)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 2929.25, up 31.00

Fundamentals:U.S benchmarks are lingering at the highest level in a week, a crucial area of technical resistance. Yesterdays Fed Minutes from the July rate-cut meeting exuded division and although not deep, it would seem just enough to actually help lift the tape until we can see further evidence of a bettering economy. As known, two committee members dissented against the action, but markets found solace in others favoring a larger 50 basis point cut. This brings a favorable dynamic, one weve seen in the past, either the U.S economy turns a corner and lift markets, or central banks will pilot a path of further easing that should keep markets stable to higher in the longer run. Flash PMI data from the Eurozone this morning, although not good, was better than expected across the board. German Manufacturing PMI was a hair better than last month, the worst since August 2012. However, the French reads were a bright spot. U.S Flash PMIs are due at 8:45 am CT. This morning, Kansas City Fed President George reiterated her dissent in July just as Boston Fed President Rosengren did earlier in the week; both want to see further evidence of a weakening economy before supporting additional cuts. The odds for a 25-basis point cut next month are at 95.8%, the lowest in a month.

Technicals:Overnight, price action in both the S&P and NQ touched the highest point since last Tuesdays opening bell. This is major three-star resistance in each, 2932-2944.25 in the S&P and 7789.50-7808 in the NQ. We have a slight Bullish Bias but remain overall cautiously optimistic until the market can chew through these crucial levels. Todays pivots will play a key role in dictating a path of least resistance, if price action holds above these levels at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

Crude Oil (October)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 55.68, down 0.45

Fundamentals:Yesterdays EIA inventory report was less bullish than the API data the evening before and price action remains stuck within its range. Session lows were achieved just after midnight and a more bullish case was reinvigorated due to better than expected Flash PMIs from the Eurozone. With an ever-present geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Crude Oil will certainly look to find every reason to rally ahead of the weekend. Whether that is the economic data, Brent Crude pinging $60 as support or the broader risk-environment; all are on our radar.

Technicals:Crude Oil is hugging a level that aligns with a trend line from the July 15th high. Price action has not been able to close above here, and this is necessary if the market were to begin favoring the bulls. Given the strength this week, we remain upbeat as long as support ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

Gold (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1515.7, unchanged

Fundamentals:Gold began slipping just ahead of Eurozone Flash PMIs which turned out to be better than expected. The German 10-year Bund yield has risen 5 basis points this morning to reach a lofty yield of -0.623. The U.S Treasury complex is seeing (prices) a bit of additional pressure after Kansas City Fed President George reiterated her dissent at the July rate-cut meeting as the Jackson Hole symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, gets underway. Everyone is readying for Fed Chair Powell tomorrow at 9:00 am CT.

Technicals:We are near, intermediate and long-term Bullish in Bias Gold as long as it stays out above major three-star support at 1484.5-1487.2. With strong major three-star support also coming in ahead of this at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.


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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results