Touting A New Trading Idea
Jerry Welch - InsideFutures.com - Thu Aug 22, 9:29AM CDT


Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

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Below are some comments taken from the morning broadcast of my twice a day newsletter Commodity Insite. The second broadcast I will make will be around noon Chicago. Anyway, here are a few thoughts I offered earlier today.

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other markets and comments

The CRB index and the Goldman index were both up about 25 to 30 points yesterday. The fact both were higher is a positive. But the fact the gains were meager was not a positive. Still, the indexes closed higher and for that I am thankful. But then there is today to worry about.


Tomorrow, Friday, the Fed will make a policy statement following their Jackson Hole, Wyoming meeting. There has been widespread talk about deflation the past month and the possibility exists the Fed will lower rates and may embark on a stimulus program to help the economy, the stock market or hard assets by tolerating some inflation. My point is this. The Fed could offer a game changer on Friday. Be careful with short positions in any market.


The Fed has made it plain they wish to see a bit more inflation. Yes, they have! And I hope they get what they want. Historically speaking, they usually do!


6:51 a.m Chicago time

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This morning as I type furiously away, grains are doing well with soybeans on the plus by 7 cents, corn is 2 higher and wheat up 5 cents in Chicago. The grains are doing well with the bull spreads in Chicago wheat, Dec. 19 vs. Dec. 20 are posting a modest breakout in favor of the '19 contracts.


In the critter complex, live cattle are 60 higher and hogs that much lower. The USDA will release a Cattle on Feed report after the close tomorrow that in theory will be bullish. But when it comes to reports, there is no saying what surprises lurk hidden in the data.


And though the Dow is 40 to 50 higher, all other stock indexes are lower with bond futures leaking to the tune of 14 points. But both markets are waiting to hear from the Fed later today and what is being seen now will be quickly forgotten by Monday.


The Fed wants a bit more inflation. They have expressed that desire in the recent past. Down thru history, the Fed gets what it wants. Pick with care the markets played on the short side of the ledger moving forward. Pick with care.


Drop me a line at commodityinsite1@gmail.com if you wish to see my twice a day newsletter Commodity Insite. Or, call me at 406 682 5010. I am now touting a low risk trading opportunity you may wish to know about. Let me hear from you!


The time now is 9:29 a.m. Chicago




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