Grains Report 08/23/19
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Fri Aug 23, 11:40AM CDT

Alerts History
• 23-Aug-2019 07:56:05 AM – CHINA SAYS WILL IMPOSE EXTRA 5% TARIFFS ON U.S. SOYBEAN FROM SEPT 1
• 23-Aug-2019 07:56:54 AM – CHINA SAYS WILL IMPOSE EXTRA 10% TARIFFS ON U.S. WHEAT, CORN, SORGHUM FROM DEC 15
• 23-Aug-2019 08:04:21 AM – CHINA SAYS WILL IMPOSE EXTRA 10% TARIFFS ON U.S. BEEF AND PORK

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Aug 22
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 52.646 million pounds, in July, 6.8% below the previous
month, and 36.5% above July 2018, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Thursday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Jul 31 Jun 30 Jul 31 Jun 30 warehouse
2019 2019 2018 2018 stocks/Jul
pork bellies 52,646 56,468 38,556 53,279
orange juice 822,044 859,757 691,110 733,849
french fries 907,021 945,264 859,456 941,336
other potatoes 227,094 239,233 237,286 270,621
chicken rstr (whole) 20,556 21,506 16,379 15,370
ham 172,556 168,599 167,563 148,657
total pork 601,790 619,454 552,029 561,879 553,233
total beef 455,102 405,645 484,248 448,585 448,699
total red meat 1,104,664 1,069,381 1,096,502 1,064,096 1,049,674
total chicken 850,463 836,215 877,649 887,984
total turkey 557,018 538,714 594,927 561,858
total poultry 1,411,301 1,378,981 1,476,861 1,453,467 1,315,986
===============================================================================

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Aug 22
For the week ended Aug 15, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 594.6 4.9 10421.6 8556.7 4962.3 17.1
hrw 242.6 0.0 4035.1 2462.4 1519.6 0.0
srw 80.5 4.9 1312.3 1084.3 688.3 12.4
hrs 185.7 0.0 2804.4 2617.0 1510.9 4.8
white 66.1 0.0 1825.1 2200.7 947.0 0.0
durum 19.6 0.0 444.6 192.5 296.5 0.0
corn 119.3 301.6 50103.3 60365.8 2172.4 4682.2
soybeans 25.9 792.6 48618.1 58761.7 4499.3 5261.2
soymeal 118.6 13.4 11925.2 12451.2 1848.3 1211.0
soyoil 2.2 0.0 879.2 1037.0 144.7 24.2
upland cotton 164.0 0.5 7938.7 8510.9 7247.8 439.9
pima cotton -5.1 0.0 148.7 237.1 125.6 0.0
sorghum -2.9 10.2 1724.8 5088.1 85.0 10.2
barley 0.0 0.0 56.7 51.5 46.5 0.0
rice 69.0 0.0 802.2 451.5 589.0 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little higher on improved export demand and more stable prices in Europe and Russia. Wire reports indicated that world Wheat values were stable, but the market still thinks that there is more than enough good Wheat available to buyers. That implies that improved demand will still require weaker prices in the US. USDA showed that the Winter Wheat harvest is starting to wrap up and that the Spring Wheat harvest is moving slowly in the reports Monday. Trends are sideways to down in Wheat markets and HRW Wheat is near some major support points on the weekly continuation charts. Wheat prices could stay relatively weak as the Spring Wheat harvest moves to completion and traders will look for higher European and Russian offer prices for signs that the selling is coming to an end.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered and light showers on Wednesday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers and storms today, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather but showers are possible in Saskatchewan late this week. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 436, 428, and 394 September. Support is at 463, 457, and 453 September, with resistance at 471, 480, and 483 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 384, 381, and 378 September, with resistance at 394, 403, and 408 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 485, 464, and 407 September. Support is at 497, 494, and 491 September, and resistance is at 508, 511, and 514 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower again yesterday despite improved weekly export sales. Traders have been moving out of September positions before deliveries get started at the end of next week. There was no real buying interest shown even through prices are getting close to cash levels in Texas. Trends are down in the daily charts and more selling is possible in the short-term. The harvest is active in Texas and Louisiana and reports indicate average yields at best. There are reports of smut in Rice areas southwest of Houston. Good yields are reported just west of Houston but variable yields are seen in Louisiana and southwest of Houston. Crops to the north in Arkansas will be coming off flood soon and expectations range from average to below average yields. These reports and private estimates would indicate that USDA is too high in its production estimates and that the agency will need to lower estimates as more data becomes available.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1072 September. Support is at 1072, 1069, and 1057 September, with resistance at 1101, 1118, and 1121 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday. The market is still feeling selling pressure from the decision by Trump to offer waivers for ethanol production to 31 small refineries. Many ethanol producers are cutting back on processing in reaction to the news and that means less Corn demand. Trump and his people are looking for alternatives to help producers but have put themselves in a bad spot with few alternatives. The Pro Farmer crop tour covered Minnesota yesterday and the tour is now over. Yield potential in the state was highly variable with many reports of green snap and some disease reports. Some fields were very good and appeared ready to produce very well. The yields seen from tour participants still imply that production is less too much less than a year ago. Pro Farmer will issue its final crop estimate this afternoon. Some showers and storms passed through central and eastern areas of the Midwest this week to give those crops a much-needed watering. The potential is there for a good crop, but the weather has been less than favorable and a late freeze is needed along with much improved weather to create the big crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 357, 353, and 350 September, and resistance is at 370, 371, and 379 September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 256, 255, and 254 September. Support is at 261, 257, and 255 September, and resistance is at 268, 270, and 274 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were a little lower. The weekly export sales report showed good demand for new crop Soybeans but was not strong for old crop Soybeans or the products. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is now over and the organization will give a final production estimate this afternoon. Pod counts for most areas were less than a year ago and the three-year average for the tour. Plants are still immature so some additional pods could form. Some areas, mostly in Iowa and Minnesota, had sold and above tour average pod counts, but most areas had less too much less. A large percentage of the Soybeans were not planted until after the beginning of June and some traders feel that the late planting is resulted in what appears to be lower production potential. The weekly export sales report showed some demand from China for new crop US Soybeans despite the word from the government to avoid US purchases. The data highlight just how cheap US new crop Soybeans are for the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 835 and 815 September. Support is at 852, 849, and 847 September, and resistance is at 869, 883, and 887 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 292.00, 291.00, and 287.00 September, and resistance is at 298.00, 300.00, and 303.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2830, 2750, and 2660 September. Support is at 2830, 2800, and 2760 September, with resistance at 2890, 2910, and 2950 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mostly a little higher and prices are stuck in a trading range. The market is waiting or new production data from StatsCan next week and most expect Canola production to be reduced from last year. The average trade guess for Canola production is 18.9 million tons. Production last year was 20.34 million tons. Cold weather is possible next week and there is talk that a frost of freeze might be done. Palm Oil was a little higher on outside markets. Buying also probably came as the China-US trade war is causing China to consider dropping quotas on world vegetable oils imports. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 448.00, 445.00, and 442.00 November, with resistance at 456.00, 457.00, and 459.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2280 and 2370 November. Support is at 2230, 2190, and 2150 November, with resistance at 2260, 2280, and 2300 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry after some showers and storms move from west to east today. Temperatures should be near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +41 Sep +165 Sep +48 Nov +12 Aug N/A
September +37 Sep +73 Sep +30 Nov
October +41 Dec +75 Dec +28 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 22
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug. 22 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Thursday, August 22.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 422.40 -29.00 Nov 2019 up 1.70
Track Thunder Bay 468.10 15.00 Nov 2019 unch
Track Vancouver 473.10 20.00 Nov 2019 unch
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 550.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 552.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 552.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 555.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 570.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 555.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 557.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 557.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 560.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 575.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 557.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 447.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,200 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 156.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1885)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 273,746 lots, or 9.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,387 3,426 3,387 3,426 3,387 3,405 18 10,074 22,272
Nov-19 3,434 3,462 3,434 3,462 3,427 3,454 27 20 300
Jan-20 3,430 3,500 3,430 3,494 3,425 3,467 42 247,848 176,708
Mar-20 3,451 3,534 3,451 3,487 3,435 3,483 48 10 26
May-20 3,658 3,710 3,658 3,699 3,651 3,688 37 15,792 41,528
Jul-20 3,684 3,684 3,684 3,684 3,636 3,684 48 2 12
Corn
Turnover: 763,768 lots, or 14.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,849 1,860 1,848 1,859 1,844 1,854 10 42,784 101,596
Nov-19 1,884 1,890 1,878 1,887 1,877 1,883 6 48,038 369,444
Jan-20 1,909 1,922 1,907 1,920 1,907 1,914 7 639,894 1,178,252
Mar-20 1,927 1,941 1,927 1,941 1,926 1,937 11 352 3,384
May-20 1,965 1,980 1,965 1,979 1,965 1,973 8 32,640 221,676
Jul-20 1,985 1,991 1,982 1,991 1,979 1,987 8 60 1,216
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,504,806 lots, or 73.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 2,962 2,970 2,930 2,960 2,918 2,948 30 81,252 124,394
Nov-19 2,957 2,986 2,944 2,977 2,932 2,960 28 77,744 260,432
Dec-19 2,944 2,984 2,944 2,982 2,931 2,961 30 2,622 1,536
Jan-20 2,937 2,969 2,925 2,958 2,915 2,945 30 2,087,998 2,069,268
Mar-20 2,867 2,880 2,859 2,880 2,848 2,868 20 78 900
May-20 2,739 2,773 2,733 2,763 2,728 2,750 22 254,918 491,412
Jul-20 2,744 2,769 2,744 2,765 2,737 2,757 20 172 766
Aug-20 2,774 2,787 2,771 2,773 2,763 2,780 17 22 26
Palm Oil
Turnover: 947,142 lots, or 46.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 4,766 4,816 4,742 4,814 4,728 4,780 52 29,836 46,114
Oct-19 4,780 4,916 4,780 4,916 4,822 4,848 26 4 12
Nov-19 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,864 4,800 -64 2 12
Dec-19 – – – 4,670 4,732 4,670 -62 0 6
Jan-20 4,858 4,904 4,824 4,878 4,822 4,862 40 883,264 539,158
Feb-20 4,988 4,988 4,938 4,938 4,974 4,962 -12 4 20
Mar-20 – – – 5,004 5,004 5,004 0 0 2
Apr-20 5,010 5,010 5,010 5,010 5,040 5,010 -30 2
May-20 5,024 5,044 4,978 5,022 4,984 5,010 26 34,030 60,970
Jun-20 – – – 5,022 4,996 5,022 26 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 5,056 5,056 5,056 0 0 2
Aug-20 – – – 5,000 5,000 5,000 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 968,632 lots, or 59.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 6,082 6,108 6,018 6,062 6,060 6,056 -4 26,688 77,058
Nov-19 – – – 6,096 6,100 6,096 -4 0 4
Dec-19 6,182 6,182 6,132 6,132 6,142 6,176 34 36 70
Jan-20 6,222 6,232 6,140 6,186 6,186 6,182 -4 883,006 1,012,048
Mar-20 6,196 6,196 6,196 6,196 6,194 6,196 2 14
May-20 6,186 6,210 6,134 6,168 6,168 6,168 0 58,900 189,614
Jul-20 – – – 6,172 6,172 6,172 0 0 4
Aug-20 – – – 6,134 6,134 6,134 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.