USDA Data Early Snows & Trade Talks All on Tap
Paul Georgy of Allendale, Inc - - Thu Oct 10, 7:35AM CDT
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 10, 2019.

Grain markets are mixed overnight as traders take one last look at their positions ahead of this mornings USDA report. Of course the snow storm in the Plains will be closely watched as well for the potential to impact yields and delay harvest. Headlines out of trade talks between the US and China will also be closely monitored.

USDA Supply and Demand report will be released today at 11:00 AM CDT. Analysts expect to see corn production at 13.684 billion bushels on a yield of 167.5 bushels per acre. Soybean production is expected at 3.583 bb on a yield of 47.3 bpa. Total corn ending stocks are estimated at 1.784 billion bushels, soybeans .521 bb, and wheat 1.015 bb.

Weekly export sales will be out this morning at 7:30. Traders expect to see corn sales of 500,000 to 800,000 tonnes, soybean sales of 1,300,000 to 1,800,000, wheat sales of 300,000 to 600,000, soymeal of 100,000 to 400,000, and soyoil of 5,000 to 35,000 tonnes.

Ethanol production in the latest week rose from 958,000 barrels per day to now 963,000. This is disappointing as it was 7.4% under last year. Year to date production has been pulled down to 5.4% under last year. We are clearly behind USDAs hope for a 1.4% year/year increase.

Russia's Ag Minister expects the country's grain crop at 120 million tonnes, an increase from his previous estimate of 118 million. Wheat is thought to be 78 million tonnes of the new total. For their part, USDA pegs the Russian what crop at 72.5 million.

FranceAgriMer raised its estimate of the French soft wheat exports this marketing year to 11.7 million tonnes from 11.0 million last month. They cite a good harvest and competitive prices for the increase.

We published an early morning headline yesterday that China was rumored to have offered to buy an additional $10 billion in US soybeans. That story was later clarified to be an additional 10 million bushels of soybeans. Talks will restart later this morning, though both sides have down played the expectations of a deal.

The hog market took the Chinese soybean purchase story as also being positive for pork. As you know, if there is a product that they need to import from us it is pork. It must be noted, however, there was no discussion of pork in the rumor. Traders would love to see a big buy on this morning export sales report.

China's General Administration of Customs reports the country brought in 906 breeding hogs from Denmark in August. They came on a charter jet and have now completed one month of quarantine.

The Fed Cattle Exchange tried its weekly auction with 666 head divided up into four lots. All four lots received offers to buy from packers ranging from $108 - $109. All offers were rejected by buyers.

US Senators Marco Rubio and Robert Menendez asked the US Treasury Department to open an investigation into JBS S.A.. They are concerned with ties between the Brazilian operations of JBS and the Venezuelan government.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up 1.00 and select down .94. The CME feeder index is 144.45. Pork cut-out values were down 1.44.