Thursday, Livestock Comments
Jerry Welch - InsideFutures.com - Thu Oct 10, 12:42PM CDT


Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

Below are the morning Livestock Comments from my twice a day newsletter, Commodity Insite. The information was broadcast to my subscribers, brokerage clients and to those that recently bought my book, Haunted By Markets just before 7 a.m. this morning, Chicago time. I hope you find something of interest in my ramblings.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


livestock complex

There was nothing bearish about critter trade yesterday as the entire complex posted a gain. Feeder cattle were up 300 points with the live cattle market on the plus by 30 points for October and December while February was 60 higher. Hogs posted gains of 210 to 170 points for December and October respectively. The critters have done quite well the past two days in a row.

Cattle futures are woefully overbought based on my technical work. The current bull run is long in the tooth as trading volume continues to be less and less with open interest on the decline. In the past, those are the earmarks of a market ready to change direction. Thus, I wish to avoid the long side of any cattle contract for 2019. But also understand if the front end of the cattle market heads lower, the odds are great so will the back end. And I do not wish to be long any hog contracts for 2019 as well.

All my work is hinting that cattle are on the cusp of a stiff break. I continue to hear cattle producers are holding back marketings in hopes of receiving higher prices. Cattle are backing up, gaining weight and futures should decline from here. We shall see.

Hog futures live or die on rumors of China buying US pork. Until such rumors are confirmed, I have no desire to be long hogs. My sell target for December futures is $73.00 or higher.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Feel free to drop me a line at commodityinsite1@gmail.com if you wish to know more about Commodity Insite. Or, call me at 406 682 5010. And keep in mind there is no substitute for timely and accurate information.



The time is 12:42 p.m Chicago


This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solutions Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.


DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.


The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice.There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.