Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Tue Nov 26, 7:24AM CST

Corn futures are mostly a penny lower this morning after gaining a couple cents on Monday. The stock market and the USD are both hovering near UNCH. The USDA’s weekly Crop Progress Report showed corn harvest now 84% complete for the 18 states the USDA tracks. The progress improved 8 percentage points over last week, but with snow in the forecast progress over the next week may slow down. The average pace for this time of year is 96% completed. USDA export inspections data for the week ending 11/21 showed 604,592 MT inspected for export. The previous week saw 651,147 MT and the same week last year was 1.182 MMT. The accumulated export inspections for the market year are now at 5.598 MMT, which is 57.48% below last year’s pace.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans are UNCH to 1 cent per bushel lower this morning. Futures finished on Monday with losses of 3 3/4 cents to 4 1/2. Soybean meal closed $0.70/ton lower, while bean oil was 44 points lower. Soybean harvest progressed 3 percentage points in the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress Report. The 94% completion was even with last year’s pace, but still lags slightly behind the average. Export inspections were the best of the marketing year at 1.943 MMT shipped for the week ending 11/21. The marketing year total is 14.383 MMT which is 2.171 MMT above last year’s pace. China accounted for 69.49% (1.35 MMT). AgRural updated their Brazilian bean forecast to be a record 120.7 MMT for 19/20. After months of ASF, we are starting to get a sense of the effects on the soybean market, reports are stating Chinese accumulated imports of soybeans are much lower than last year, with American soybeans 31.8% lower and Brazilian beans 13.5% below last year’s pace.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 1 to 5 cents lower this morning on Turnaround Tuesday profit taking. Chicago SRW is down the most after being the bull leader with a 15 cent gain on Monday. The other two markets were also higher. The Chicago wheat premium over KC expanded to 95 1/2 cents, which is the highest premium since 2010. KC and MPLS wheat are deliverable against Chicago wheat futures. Winter wheat emergence is up to 87%, which was 4 percentage points above last week’s Crop Progress Report number. The average for this week in the marketing year is 90%, with last year 85% emerged. USDA Crop condition ratings were UNCH at a 349 on the Brugler500 index. Weekly export inspections were 420,813 MT in the week ending 11/21. Last week was 462,780 MT. The accumulated exports since June 1 total 12.354 MMT (454 million bushels), a 22.24% increase over last year’s pace.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were up by $1.02 to $1.30 on Monday in a follow up to the USDA Cold Storage and COF reports. Feeder cattle futures were also higher, with gains of $2.65 to $2.75 after Monday’s trading. The 11/22 CME Feeder Cattle index was $0.15 lower to $145.38. Afternoon boxed beef prices were higher, with choice gaining more to widen the spread. Choice boxes were up by 67 cents and select boxes gained 59 cents. Monday FI slaughter was 118,000, which was even with last week, and starts off the holiday week with a 4,000 head lead over last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures finished mixed after Monday’s session, Feb and April recovered from midday lows to finish with 10 to 17 cent gains. The CME Fresh Bacon Index was up by 23 cents over last week to $162.89. The CME Lean Hog Index was bumped back up by 22 cents, to $59.76 for 11/21. The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $0.94, with hams being the only primal cut lower (by $2.48 per cwt). USDA’s national average base hog price for 11/25 was $41.78. The USDA published a revision to their FAS terminology, essentially clarifying the specifics of what muscle cuts are, and that the category does includes carcasses. USDA estimates FI hog slaughter for Monday to be 491,000 head.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are 2 to 10 points higher to begin your Tuesday. Cotton rallied on Monday with gains tapering off in the back months. Dec futures led the rally with a triple digit gain of 117 points. USDA cotton ginnings report data showed that as of Nov 15th 9.143 Million bales had been ginned. That was up 32.72% over last November and 48% over the 15 year average; and was the highest ginnings figure for November since 2012/13. Cotton harvest progressed 10 percentage points over last week, per the crop progress report. The 78% completion is 4 percentage points ahead of the average pace, and 10 points above last year’s pace. The 11/22 Cotlook A Index was down 15 points to 73.25 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 56.36 cents per lb. and effective through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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