Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Wed Nov 27, 7:26AM CST

Corn is fractionally higher in pre-holiday trade. Tuesday action saw corn futures give back 2 1/4 to 3 cents of Monday gains. The US stock market continues to post new all time highs, drawing speculative money away from commodities. Taiwan tendered for 65,000 MT of corn, with analysts expecting an Argentinean origin. The Brazilian Real touched an all-time low against the dollar at $.2364. The weak currency has helped to keep their prices down and along with the record second (formerly safrinha) corn crop has limited American corn exports. USDA expects Brazilian exports to be 36 MMT in this 2019/20 marketing year, down from 41 MMT last year. Trade estimates are heading toward 37 MMT or higher.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



This morning Soybean futures are trading 1 to 2 cents per bushel higher. Beans finished Tuesday’s session with 7 1/4 to 8 1/4 cent losses in the nearby contracts. Soybean meal was $3.60/ton lower at the closing bell, and bean oil finished with a 22 point loss. The Brazilian Real touched an all-time low against the dollar this afternoon closing at the record of .2364 dollars to Real. The weak currency has helped push their FOB prices down to $365.90/tonne. On the other side, soybean prices in Real hit a five year high for Brazilian farmers. The latest trader estimates (grains exporters associations) projected Brazilian exports at 68.7 MMT of beans through Nov 23. The Brazilian local marketing year runs February to January. USDA is using 76 MMT for their full year figure (September to August). Chinese veg oil imports in October were a record 1.3 MMT. Bean imports are down because they don’t need as much meal, but they still need the oil for cooking. YTD veg oil imports (Jan-Oct) are up 2.9 MMT from last year.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



The three US wheat futures markets are all higher this morning, from fractions of a cent to 2 3/4 cents per bushel. Wheat futures were 3/4 to 4 1/4 cents lower after Turnaround Tuesday profit taking. Chicago SRW followed a 15 cent gain on Monday with losses of 3/4 to 1 3/4 cents. Kansas City wheat futures were also down after the session, with losses of as much as 3 3/4 cents in nearby contracts. MPLS wheat was mixed at the close as the front months saw losses of 4 1/4 cents and May-Dec 2020 showed positive moves. There are currently zero stocks in deliverable position that are registered for delivery against Chicago Dec futures. First notice day is Friday.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were up by $0.52 to $0.87 at the Tuesday close, and Dec futures have hit a new 7-month high. Feeder cattle futures, however, finished mostly lower, with the closing board showing losses of 35 cents and gains in the April contracts. The 11/25 CME Feeder Cattle index was lower by 54 cents to $144.79. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this afternoon to narrow the Chc/Sel spread to 19.55. Choice boxes were $1.40 lower, and select boxes gained $0.38. There will not be an FCE online cattle auction this week. USDA estimated the Tuesday cattle slaughter under Federal inspection at 110,000, to bring the weekly total to 228,000 head. Last year’s running total through Tuesday was 234,000.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures were mostly higher yesterday, from 7 to 117 cents. The exception was nearby December, down 20 cents due to the weakness in the Index. The 11/22 CME Lean Hog Index was $1.58 lower to $58.18. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.75 lower, with belly being the only primal cut that was higher, having gained $1.35 on the day. USDA’s national average base hog price for 11/26 was $42.47, for a gain of 68 cents. USDA estimates FI hog slaughter for Tuesday at 495,000 head, to bring the weekly total up to 986,000 just 1,000 head below last week’s record setting pace.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are 4 to 29 points lower in the last session before the Thanksgiving holiday. Participation is expected to be on the light side, as some make it a 4 or even 5 day holiday. Cotton continued Monday’s rally on Tuesday with May futures leading the way (+25 points) at the close. Cash sales started the week off strong with the Seam posting 12,620 bales sold on 11/25. USDA cotton ginnings report data showed that as of Nov 15th 9.143 Million bales had been ginned. That was up 32.72% over last November and 48% over the 15 year average; and was the highest ginnings figure for November since 2012/13. The Alabama harvest is 8 percentage points above their average pace, and SC is 14 points ahead of their average harvest pace. The 11/25 Cotlook A Index was down 85 points higher at 74.10 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 56.36 cents per lb. and effective through Friday. Cert stocks continue to rise, providing liquidity for December futures deliveries.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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