SP 500 Futures Advance to New 10 Week Highs
Alan Bush of ADM Investor Services - InsideFutures.com - Fri Feb 15, 8:50AM CST


U.S. stock index futures traded higher due to signs of progress in the U.S.-China trade talks.Officials from the U.S. and China will meet next week in Washington to continue working on a trade agreement.

The New York Federal Reserves Empire State Manufacturing surveys general business conditions index this month improved to 8.8, which is up from Januarys reading of 3.9. The data was better than expected, as economists were predicting a reading of 7.1.

The cost of goods imported into the U.S. declined for a third consecutive month in January. Import prices fell 0.5% in January from the previous month. Economists forecast a 0.3% decrease from December.

January industrial production was down .6%, which compares to expectations of up.1% and January capacity utilization was 78.2% when 78.8% was anticipated.

The 9:00 central time February consumer sentiment index is estimated to be 93.

Stock index futures have been performing better than the news would suggest since the lows were made in late December, which should be viewed as a sign of strength.


The U.S. dollar recovered today after the dismal U.S. retail sales report pressured the greenback yesterday.

The British pound firmed on news that retail sales in the U.K. bounced back sharply in January, increasing 1% from the previous month, after declining 0.7% in December. Compared to a year ago, retail sales were 4.2% higher in January, which was the biggest annual gain since December 2016. The figures beat most economists' predictions.

The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are higher due to firming crude oil prices.


Futures are mostly lower, especially at the long end of the curve.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank PresidentRaphael Bostic will deliver a speech at 8:55.

Financial futures markets are predicting an 83% probability that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the current level of 2.25%-2.50% this year. There is a 7% chance for a 25 basis point increase in 2019 and there is a 10% probability of a 25 basis point reduction this year.

The thirty year Treasury bond futures have remained in a broad trading range since the first week in January. A U.S.-China trade agreement, or strong hint of one, would be a catalyst to take futures lower.


March 19S&P 500

Support 2728.00 Resistance 2775.00

March 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 96.770 Resistance 97.280

March 19Euro Currency

Support 1.12530 Resistance 1.13350

March 19Japanese Yen

Support .90450 Resistance .90970

March 19Canadian Dollar

Support .75110 Resistance .75580

March 19Australian Dollar

Support .7083 Resistance .7137

March 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 145^30 Resistance 146^30

April 19Gold

Support 1311.0Resistance 1328.0

March 19Copper

Support 2.7500 Resistance 2.8150

April 19 Crude Oil

Support 54.52 Resistance 56.13

Contact Alan for more extensive information on these markets at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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